What's a party without QQQs?

My “observation” has been NDX/QQQs top last in the great tops; 1987, 2000 and 2007.  And with SPX and DJIA having already recorded intraday and closing highs, QQQs/NDX have yet to join the party.  Not a lot of observations supporting my “observation”, 3 in total, but it’s kept me from saying the ‘top is in’ until now.  Specifically, the order of the indices in topping is this:

 Today QQQs closed higher than the heretofore highest close of this bull market – March 6, 2014.  But its intraday high fell short of the 91.36 that was recorded on March 7, 2014.  QQQs are doing the split that Jean-Claude Van Dam did with a foot on each of 2 eighteen wheelers doing 50 MPH in full split.  In my study of QQQs a split high or low close/intraday occurs often, probably more often than not.  Again, an observation.  And frequently when the high close occurs earlier, the following day prints an intraday the high and forms an outside down day-big candle.  Yet again, an observation, not a “theory.”

Based on the indices closing at the high of the day, I’m expecting some continuation tomorrow.  And that’s not to mention the mood of the natives on the floor….popping open bottles of champagne at SPX’ all time high and DJIA within mere points of another all time high.  Won’t take much for QQQs to get that extra $.06. 

Unfortunately, I was looking for a rocket ascension of QQQs to give me the “signature” of a final high.  [The last 4 days of 1987, 2000 and 2007 bulls ended with a large price blowoffs.]  No rocket as yet, but I have one more day left in for my target date for this bull market to end (see essay “SPX 1998 Squares 2014…” and “).  My lowest target is mid/upper 94s for QQQs so there’s a long ways to go.  

A happy ending would be QQQs, SPX and DJIA rocket, fizzle and close lower.

In any event, I have half what I need for a top tomorrow and need the intraday element now.  Errr, and then I don’t need any highs after that.

Jim

Note-after the close 5/30/14.  Today SPX and NDX/QQQ made both a higher intraday and closing high.  NDX/QQQs were the last to the party at this point, jointly with SPX.  DJIA made its highest close but failed to make a higher intraday high today. 

What happens next?

I made this point before, back when there wasn't anyone taking any hint of new all time highs in SPX and DJIA seriously.  Remember 'the top is in - March and April'?  And hinting at new 5 year highs in NDX was even less credible.  So I won't make that point again.  But pictures might be worth a thousand words.

1987:

2000:

2007:

 2014??

 

Jim

Gapology

Gapology

And today we undertake the venerated topic of gapology.  Yesterday there appeared an opening gap in QQQs/NDX that, if not closed very early today, might have some relevance.  You can call them exhaustion gaps, breakaway gaps, yada yada.  But when they happen in an index they often mean something.  In the following, I’ve provided more descriptive names.  Take for instance the 1929 oh shucks gap in DJI:

Notice it appears at about the 50% price level.  How about the 1987 darn gap in DJI:

Again, it appeared at 50% of the total down move.

There was a whippie upside gap in QQQs on October 29, 1999 and later an oh XXXX gap down on February 15, 2001, the former at 25% of the price move up and the later at 61.8% of the move down.

Finally, such scientific inquiry would be incomplete without the 2007-09 SHTF gap that occurred on October 3, 2008 at 61.8% of the total move down:

With that background, what does yesterday’s opening gap look like:

On the left there is a retrace tool anchored on the April 15, 2014 low and centering the 61.8% level at the gap.  With that, price might be projected to 94.44.  Employing the same method but centering 50% on the gap and I can squeeze out 97.00.

I say squeeze out 97 because I like that number.  No, not because I’m long, but because of some metrics I discussed well more than a month ago.  Here’s the short version.  QQQs first trade was 3/10/1999 whereupon it declined to a then all time low on 3/24/1999 at 48.50.  Exactly 1 year to the day later and exactly 72 points later, QQQs hit their all time high of 120.50.  Exactly.  In your face on the button.  360 degrees of one year and 72 points or a “pentagonal” unit of the circle but in price.

So what.  Well, the 2007-2009 bear low was 25.05 on 11/21/2008.  Plus that interval of 72 and you have 97.05.  I like that number.  There’s one more plus to the 97 number.  At 97, QQQs will complete the mythical “expanding ending diagonal triangle.”  In Frost and Prechter’s view (EWP pg 37) this is similar to the Yetti in that they’ve seen just one so they can’t say whether it exists or not?  In Edwards Magee it’s a broadening formation or something like that.  Regardless, the message to the formation is something is ending.  I’ve been watching that bizarre thing since the April 15 bottom and 97 intersecting that upper boundary would constitute a happy ending and a not so merciful ending for bears.

If this remotely occurs (94 or 97), it will be the rocket I’ve been anticipating as the capstone to the 2009-2014 bull.  That is not a good thing because that would, IMHO, put the markets squarely in line with the character of the dot.com moment.  The final rocket up in 2000 was dwarfed by the rapidity and viciousness of the immediately subsequent brick down.  And I have several essays on that.

Jim  

Six squares in SPX and Bradley Cowan's cubic geometry

Bradley Cowan's (BC) Four-Dimensional Stock Market Structures and Cycles (4D) presents stock markets as reflecting a four-dimensional structure of time and space that has long been theorized in nature.  BC uses his Price Time Vectors (PTV) to measure major market movements and to construct cubes of market time and price representing the time periods that form the faces and edges of the markets as they form cubes.  In response to my previous post on this blog, Gary posted a chart on Thetas_pendulum that resonated the cubic structure.  First, a summary of the previous two posts on this blog.

From the previous essays, 1) Bradley Cowan's 17-year Pentagonal Cycle began on about October 1, 1998 and will end about December 7, 2016 (PTCT, pg 48), 2) from that date to present you have 5707 days, 3) from the 2009 to May 24, 2014 you have 1902 days, and 3) their relation is 3.000.  That relation infers the creation of a cube because 3 is the square of the diagonal of a 1X1 cube.  There's more to those posts but that is enough.

In response to that previous blog essay, Gary on Thetas_pendulum provided the following chart:

My understanding is the above was created with the Wave59 root 2 tool which iterated six expansions of root 2.  Count them, six squares fitted within six circles that define the root 2 growth process.  And a cube has how many faces or squares, six of course.  Perhaps the geometric structure is completing imminently?

Now, that sideways tilted square with the c and d points….that's a square which has the same length and width as that of the very first square with points a and b.  Interestingly, the market sits both on the edge of the 6th circle and is a corner of the tilted square with points c, d and 6.

That point 6 is interesting.  To stay within the circle, price would have to decline fairly rapidly.  Not that it will do so.  Other tops went through the respective circle showed little reaction….  Might the 6th be the charm for a top to respect the circle?  From the other side of the coin, I do see some bottoms respecting the integrity of the circle; 1997, 2002 and 2007.  Of course, the 2000 top respected it.

But here's what really concerns me at this juncture:

• 1) the market might be completing a cubic structure that began with the first day of the current Pentagonal Cycle AND 
• 2) the market is at the possible end of the greatest bull market in history AND 
• 3) the last 3 years of a bear 17-year cycle following a 5-year bull market often result in the lowest low of the 17 years.

The best example; 1929 followed one of the greatest bull markets in history and recorded the final low three years later in July, 1932 shortly before the cycle ended in March 1933.

Lots of circumstance.  Draw your own conclusions.

Jim

SPX 1998 squaring 2014 and Bradley Cowan's Pentagonal Cycle

Some background and the set up.  September 1, 1998 is the beginning of Bradley Cowan's 17-year cycle which will be completing in 12/7/2016 (pg 48 Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory).  Cowan has indicated that the last 3 years of 17-year bear cycles (we are in a bear cycle by his definition) which follow large 5-year bull markets will be very difficult.  Those 3 years may print the low of that 17-year cycle…. relating to our current 17-year cycle, lower than 2009.  Most notably, 1929 followed the roaring '20s and that 5-year bull.  And 1932 was the last year of that 17-year cycle.  Of course, we all know what happened from September 1929 to August 1932. 

Recall my recent essay regarding "SPX and Gold" which indicates that if SPX tops at a 1902 close when the market reopens Tuesday, it effectively squared 1902 days from the 3/9/2009 low SPX close.  Actually, 1902 calendar days from 3/9/2009 occurred yesterday, May 24, 2014 but since markets are not open on weekends and holidays, I give the benefit of the doubt to the next previous or subsequent trading day.  So, Tuesday, in my experience, may be considered day 1902.

Now some facts.  The low close for 1998 was 957 on August 31, 1998 even though the low intraday printed a tad lower at 923 on October 8, 1998.  Helio Uranus was at 311 degrees.

So what is the geometric relation between the two periods?

And the sqrt(3) is the diagonal of the cube.  Pretty significant.

So, 1902 calendar days from 3/6/2009 to this coming Tuesday squares price.  And now we find a very meaningful relation between the beginning of the 17-year cycle and that same date in 2014.  What next?  You should have already noticed what comes next.

The lowest closing low on August 31, 1998 was 957.  So what is the relation between price at that date and the indicated close, errr 1902 on the target date.  957 X 2 = 1914.  1914 vs 1902, very close.  Perhaps we have an intraday high at 1914 and close 1902?  Heck, there is a range of the intraday low of 923 and the lowest close of 957 which, when doubled, gives a range that is well within striking distance of SPX' current price.

The above is strong for me.  The remainder gets a bit loose.

What has Uranus been doing during since 311* in 1998?  Well, on 5/14/2014 its at 13* having moved 62* since 1998.  Does that have a relation to price.  Well, we don't know where price will end this 5-year rally so let's pick a number, say that 1914 which is double the 1998 low close.  Price moved 1914 minus the lowest intraday low for 1998 which was 923 or 991.  991 divided by 62 is 15.984.  If you divide by 10 you're darn close to an early Fibonacci iteration of Phi, 1.60 or  Fib #8 divided by Fib #5.

Don't stop now.  Looking at these relations on a Sq of 9 chart (unfortunately, my So9 chart won't shrink down to show Uranus on the outer square), you see, of course, Uranus in 1998 (black longitude line) near sextile Uranus in 2014 (purple longitude line).  Interestingly, the black longitude line intersects cell 933 which was an intraday trade within 10 points of the lowest intraday low in 1998.  So, does the purple 2014 longitude intersect any prices within reach of the current market?  Sure, cell 1954.  I guess maybe that 'ups the enny' from the 1914 intraday.    

I'll be disappointed if next week isn't an interesting week.  My read, given the stuff I've posted about QQQs possibly topping by the end of the week, is that bears may have a hard time.  

But more importantly is how it all relates to the last 3 years of Cowan's 17-year cycle.  Does the 3 year period begin forthwith?  Or is Cowan wrong?

Jim

SPX and "gold"

No, not gold "gold."  A kinda Golden "Square" in SPX soon?  Either this geometry resonates with you or not.

The diagonal of the Golden Rectangle is 1.902 or the sqrt((Phi^2)+(1^2)).  1.902 X 100 = 1902.

The 2009 low close in SPX occurred on 3/9/2009.  3/9/2009 + 1902 = 5/24/2014, today.  So, can we count the close Monday as if the it occurred today?

The intraday high yesterday, 5/23/2014, was 1901 and the close was 1900.  Not quite there.

Gann said to draw angles from important highs and lows…. not just from the bottom up but from the top down as well.  Well, we don't know what the final all time high is going to be, but lets assume its the 100 X the diagonal of the Golden Rectangle.  Here's the artist's rendition:

Were SPX to close 1902 on Monday, game on IMO.*  All that would remain for my happy ending would be for NDX to make the final high as in 1987, 2000 and 2007.**   My 'guess'  for NDX to top  (quite presumptuously assuming such will occur) Friday the 30th as per previous essay.

Thanks to all veterans this holiday,

Jim

*Note:  In reviewing the great tops and bottoms (1987, 2000, 2007) the highest close and highest intraday did not necessarily occur on the same day.  More frequently than otherwise (as I recall and haven't re checked) the high close occurred the day before the highest intraday high.  I have an essay for that.

**Note:  When I say NDX make the final high, NDX has not been the first to make the high in a great rally and currently its first among SPX and DJIA with its high on March 7, 2007;  SPX and DJIA made their highest highs only this last week.  I have an essay for that.  

Counting days in QQQs

Since I floated the idea that SPX and QQQs/NDX had to make another and final high (see the “Sorry” essay from Monday) in May at the latest I’ve been trying to further refining the date.  Here’s some square of 9 logic applied to a ‘broadening formation’ formed in QQQs.  First the chart of QQQs that measures five intervals each beginning at the start of the first wave of the broadening, December 13, 2013.  

Cumulative calendar day intervals of 18, 52, 82 and 123 describe the highs and lows of the proposed broadening formation.  The 4 blue vectors on the following square of 9 are those 4 intervals.

Seems a little too ‘co axial’ to be other than some “structure” in the arrangement of time.  Given that we are now 39 calendar days since the last low touch of the bottom boundary on April 15, 2014, the cumulative days is at least 123 + 39 = 162.  Heck, there are only 8 cells left representing May dates.  What are some So9 potential dates next week that would fit the previously proposed required final May high?

I’d propose cell 165 or 170 which are the red vectors on the So9.  Cell 165 would translate to December 13, 2014 + 165 calendar days or Tuesday May 27.  As it turns out, cell 165 is pretty dead on 225 degrees (5 units of 45*) from cell 18 or the first low.  It doesn’t seem so logically related to the cluster of blue vectors representing the other dates.  Maybe 30 degrees?  Last week I’d posted on a board that I liked May 27, but seeing that co axial cluster, I’m not so sure.

Now, cell 170 looks pretty close to the cluster making it nearly co axial.  Cell 170 is Sunday, June 1.  Yeah, it’s a Sunday, no market on Sunday.  But who’s to say had the market been open on Sunday the high would not then have occurred?  Time doesn’t stop because the market does.

And that brings up the same issue again but on a larger scale because several of those intervals begin or end on a Monday or Friday.  I’d argue you can ‘jiggle’ around those Monday and Friday dates making them Saturday or Sunday as you might ‘think’ the markets would have wished them.  Perhaps that cluster might be tighter if I tried to optimize better.  There’s only so much jiggling you can do and I don’t think it’ll change the perception.

I like Friday, May 30 (the last trading day before cell 170, Sunday June 1), but I’m not the one that counts.  If QQQs prints a highest close since 2009 and highest intraday before then, I’ll be watching my stops.

Jim

Note: I haven’t checked but SPX’ is in a similar but contracting formation and the high low timing appears to be very similar. 

Note 2: The green vector on the chart is a "Wolfewave" price objective.  If you want some low challenge technical study check out Wolfewaves.  I've seen them work before.  And this particular green vector fits nicely with the upper boundary of broadening, Fib levels and the proposed dates of May 27 and May 30.