This is the first of two related essays which, I hope, will be the last that I write. I'll explain in tomorrow's essay. The present essay will cover already considered ground but it's necessary to provide context with a greater level of statistical gravitas.
The previous day's essay identified what I considered proof of an irrefutable encryption device within William Delbert Gann's 1927 romance, "The Tunnel Thru the Air (TTTTA). I have not read any person who has identified this method but I haven't read all of the available 'expert' literature regarding Mr. Gann. For those who did not read the essay I'll recount what I consider to be the proof and then evaluate its statistical unlikelihood as being other than through 'intelligent design.' Here, I am not speaking of "Grand Design" but by "Gann design." "A" method of design and not the only method of design that he used.
On the very first page of the "Foreword" Mr. Gann explains his objective for the book and he plants an telestic device in that paragraph.
Count "Foreword" as line 1 and as 1 the space between the two obvious page breaks. On the eighth line so counted and the last letter of that line you will find "e" to end the word "three-" and to end that line. At the end of the next line you find it ending in "e." And for another 4 lines, each ends in "e." That is a telestic and was a popular method of learned medieval correspondents. It was taught and used by Lord Francis Bacon and his teacher, mentor and collaborator, John Dee of the court of Queen Eliabeth (the original "007") and Maximilian II of Rome.
What is the probability of six consecutive 'e's to end six consecutive sentences above? I am not a statistician but its doggone small. Since I am not a statistician my first thought was that its the joint probability of six events that are a 1 in 26 proposition (since there are 26 letters in the modern English language). The joint probability, assuming replacement and the absence of dependence, would be 1/26 X 1/26 X 1/26 X 1/26 1/26 X 1/26 or 1/26^6. Small.
I'm wrong about that and I know it. The above assumes the letter 'e' has the same probability of ending a word or sentence as, say, the letter 'x.' And we know that's not true. But there are many letters out of the universe of 26 that have a chance to be the last letter; s, d, t, a, n, p…. all are candidates for popular ending letters. So maybe its 1 in 15?
I'm an CPA and they don't teach that on the CPA exam (hmmm, and I took the CPA exam some
37 years ago). But, perhaps, a simple story will prove the 'Gann design' of six 'e's. It comes from one of the two most important mathematicians of my life time, Nassim Taleb (the other being the great Benoit Mandelbrot, mentor to Taleb as I understand). It is from "The Black Swan" and concerns the contest of Tony the street wise bookie and Dr. John the U Texas-Austin PhD electrical engineer and actuary.
Taleb poses the question to Tony the bookie and to Dr. John; 'what is the probability that a 'fair' coin that has been flipped 99 times and all 99 times turns up a head will be a tail on the 100th flip.' Dr. John says that's simple. The next flip is not depending on the previous 99 trials and, since the coin has two sides, the probability is 50%. That's the tragic Gaussian 'coin-toss' view of the world according to Taleb; randomness as taught in the vast majority, if not plurality, of our universities.
Tony the bookie scratches his head and probably picks his nose a bit before he answers. I had to repurchase the Kindle edition of "The Black Swan" to get Tony's common sense answer because my hard copy was lent during one of energetic expositions to a dinner guest and not returned. Kindle location 2769:
Gann's game in TTTTA is rigged; designed. There aren't enough zeros to describe six 'e's in my opinion. In 6 coin tosses, how many times would it take you to get six heads with a truly fair coin? Now how long would it take if the coin had 26 sides instead of just 2?
Mr. Gann designed TTTTA with encryption secrets. Sure, he used the rich visible symbology that paint a picture for those that are unable to get past that level. But, knowing that Mr. Gann was a 33rd degree Freemason, would you expect him to put his most valuable secrets in text book print?
The mere existence of the six 'e's is prima facie evidence of another level of meaning. I would suggest that, just as Mr. Gann said one would realize the 3 objective cited above after reading TTTTA 3 times and reading the Bible 3 times, a "reading" does not mean reading the book 3 times. And a reading is more than front to back. I believe he means you study three 'levels of reading. The first level being the printed visual symbology (objects like St Marie or disguised numbers). The second level being a study of acrostic/telestic occurrences in words and the meaning of their occurrence. And then a third level of the patterns of acrostic/telestic occurrences. We're talking thousands of hours of research. (That's not to consider the likelihood that other methods of encryption are included in TTTTA and I have confirmed examples of such in previous essays.)
Is it worth it? We who have read TTTTA multiple times know Mr. Gann predicted in no uncertain terms, the stock market crash, the term of the stock market portion of the Depression and the World War II. These predictions are plainly presented at level one. Level two, contains far more detailed proof of prophecy and I've only superficially studied the first 11 chapters. I have proven this to myself.
Beating the stock market might be another matter and I have not proven to myself from the content of TTTTA that Mr. Gann could do that. On the other hand, we know from "The Ticker Interview," Mr. Gann's market trading ability defied probability.
I am sure that I am not the first person to have identified the six 'e's and I'm probably years behind others who have enjoyed the second and third levels; 'there is nothing new under the sun.' And perhaps to this date, that is good as Gann, himself, said the world was not ready. I think its time is come and if, God willing, I am able, I will identify the methods and provide them.
So, tomorrow will be my last essay for some time and it may be the last; part of the discipline I will need to perform the work. As Gann printed on page 67 of TTTTA (incidentally, 67 was the Pythagorean number of Lord Bacon according to Petter Amundsen and, which independently has special meaning to Rosicrucians and Masons):
More telling of my knowledge would be the encouragement of John Dee in "Monad Hieroglyphica:"
Jim Ross
January 15, 2015