Monday, October 17, 2016

A 2016 miracle created in 1927?

84 years since the last year in WD Gann's "The Tunnel Thru the Air."  And on page 84:


We count the days and nights to denominate the 'signs,' 'seasons,' 'days,' and 'years.'  We can predict when its best to plant, harvest, to prepare for winter...  Unfortunately, we haven't progressed to the point where we can predict much more than that have we?

I'm ever haunted by those three pages 82, 83 and 84.  Page 82 that warns us of the 'remarkable events' that will occur following the election of the 266th Pope (Pope Francis elected in 2013).  Page 83 that burdens the person who understands math and science to warn others of the signs present in the mathematics.  And page 84 that laments how few will study the Bible "...to understand the signs, discern the future and profit by it."  How many times have I written of those three pages?

People of math and science and vastly of the 'randomite' persuasion will look at the miracle of the 25 days of trading record of WD Gann and dismiss it as a fraud.  They cannot do otherwise.  According to randomness a person cannot take 286 trades in 25 days and incur only 22 losses no matter how expert they might be.  The world is random.  Absent inside information, there can be no more than a marginal trading advantage to behavioral, sociological methods of trading the markets.  And certainly, there can be no edge to any occult methodology or system of numbers.  Systems are deterministic where the world is, in their view, random.  Boil it down, the randomite is forced to claim the "independent observer" of the 286 trades was part of the fraud of the "286 trades in 25 days" for otherwise his view of the world is wrong.

Faced with the propositions that the days leading to an October 19 disaster in San Francisco would follow the timeline of the movie "Knowing," the movie "San Andreas" or be proven entirely imagined, I elected to take a whopping $800 short position in QQQs on Friday October 14.  My logic was, following the first of the three alternatives, the major indexes would each be greatly affected by the destruction of the Hoover Dam on October 15 according to the first alternative.  Of course, that did not occur leaving the final two alternatives.

If the San Andreas scenario were to occur, then it would commence mid-day (Pacific Coast Time) on October 18 and the Los Angeles and San Francisco events would occur, in that order, beginning at 2:13pm PST on October 19.  That would be after markets close on October 19.

So what miracle, conceived in 1927, might occur in 2016?  People believe in the objective truth of numbers.  Absent the ability to claim fraud, the randomites would be forced by their own god of statistics that the world is ordered; it is not a 'random walk.'  What if a great real time trade defying explanation might occur in 2016 based on clues in a 1927 novel?  After all, Mr. Gann claimed (notably on page 77) its as easy to predict the future 100 or 1000 years in advance as it is one or two.

I'm game, after all, a grub stake $800 position is not a bunch.  I've traded six figure individual trades in options contracts and this is negligible.  $.01 per share (ignoring substantial commissions) become 800 put contracts in QQQ 105 September 21 expiry or 80,000 shares.  That's the seed trade anticipating the failed October 15 Hoover Dam event now anticipating the second alternative October 18 Hoover Dam event.

If the October 18 event occurs, there's a window and a suspected perfect trade that will occur; a trade indicated in the 1927 novel, The Tunnel, that will present itself in which incredible, no miraculous, returns can be had.  I've cited acrostic/telestic name of that trade months ago.  If the window presents itself, I will revisit it in the early hours of trading on October 19.

*** ***

Of course, none of the above can happen so I fully expect, according to my understanding of the vast improbability of predicting an October 18 Hoover Dam event, that I will be writing another mea culpa come Thursday.  I hope to do so for otherwise there will have occurred great sorrow and hardship and further such tribulation will be forecast.  

Here you have it, a real time trade beginning with a whopping $800, which, if correct will have a second transaction.  If it works, the randomites haven't anywhere to hide.  A trade conceived in 1927 with returns that defy imagination.

In the alternate, I'm wrong, I hope to be wrong and that's fine with me.

Jim Ross


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