Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Can't get no satisfaction

Okay, we have the higher intraday closes that I’ve been projecting since the 4/4/2014 tops.  Forget that I thought the top would be 3/30/14 and then decided it wouldn’t be the high.  Forget that I got carried away with the Cardinal cross on 4/23/14 thinking that day or thereabouts would be the high.  Get the eye back on the ball, just a pure experiment in math; a price time area experiment.
The price time areas of SPX and QQQs in the most recent posts project tops in those indices this week as follows:

The price time area projections are in the first two columns and separate projections from proposed ending diagonal (triangles) are in the third column (QQQs are in a theoretic ending diagonal which may or may not be correct…but the implication is correct I believe).  Those formations are:

And for SPX:


Lots of important Gann angles bounding these formations.  And notice on the QQQs chart that price yesterday approached the red Gann angle from the 2001 era for the fourth time.  Gann had things to say about the 4th attempt.
That’s where things stand.  In terms of the “one more high” I’m pretty much good for all but 1 item; QQQs.  In the great tops (1987, 2000, and 2007) during its existence, Tech has never topped last.  The intraday and high close for QQQs/NDX is currently March 7, 2014.  DJIA and SPX have twice registered new close and intraday highs since that date.  I prefer Tech to make one more top, after SPX and DJIA.  Not happy.
The projections for triangle formations are pretty much visual.  SPX is visually not where it needs to be and QQQs aren’t close.  For an EW guy, they are both in the “truncation zone” to excuse any miss in an EW projection.  Still, no satisfaction.
In terms of price time areas (PTA), this is the real experiment and it does not seem to be going well.  Tech tops last, EW and Gann angles all have their merits but boil down to some subjectivity….err, except tech tops last is more an observation than a method.  SPX is in the area of the PTA projection but it has not closed 1906 nor registered an intraday of 1911 or so.  Simply, not there yet.  And QQQs aren’t close.  Needs 8 points or 9% in 3 days.  And at this moment (pre market on 5/14/14), Nasdaq futures are negative.   QQQs need to make that 4th attempt at that Gann angle the charm and run hard.  Very unlikely.
On a Mick Jagger scale of 1 to 10 on getting ‘no’ satisfaction, I’d say it’s an 8. 

Jim

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