Monday, May 19, 2014

Sorry, one more high close in SPX and QQQs, DJIA holds pat

DJIA is good to go.  Based on high monthly closes, DJIA has formed square geometry.  94 months from 2000 top to 2007 top and 79 months from 2007 top to April 2014 top.  That ratio to the 4th power gives you 2.00:

QQQ needs a higher close in May than occurred in March or April in order to make form a geometric relationship.  92 months from 2000 to 2007 top but only 78 months to April 2014.  To form a geometric 3.0 there needs to be a higher close in May than the present April 2014 close. 

Ditto for SPX.  Needs one more high to get that happy ending.

Here's a hierarchy of scenarios if DJIA holds pat and SPX and QQQs make a higher high.

SPX makes a higher high and NDX/QQQs wait a week later.  The best analogy would be 1987.  And when NDX/QQQs made that higher high in 1987, the markets went straight into the crash cycle.

SPX and NDX/QQQs top on the same day.  You have the 2000 top.  In 25 calendar days after 3/24/2000, QQQs lost 36% of their value.  And the meat of the dot.com crash hadn't begun.

Of course, none of those things might occur.  Its the "If Then" I've been watching for the last month or so.  The major signature would be the blowoff top in NDX/QQQs that attended 1987, 2000 and 2007 in the last 4 days before the top (NDX/QQQs was a 16% blowoff in 2000).

Jim

Followup- SPX and QQQs did make another top, but so did DJIA.  DJIA, however, did not make a higher intraday after QQQs as of May 30, 2014.  Hence, DJIA topped first in my book and SPX and QQQs topped equally last on the same day-both closing and intraday.  That is, if the music stops as of that date.

1 comment:

  1. Drill down on QQQs. Here's the monthly again.

    http://screencast.com/t/n2ps3lllkfFH

    Now the weekly forced to within the constraint of the monthly:

    http://screencast.com/t/SZagObt8A0l

    Now, within the constraint of the last week in May, what do the last two pivots on the daily require the final closing high to be in order to form a geometric relation? Here's the daily:

    http://screencast.com/t/RanQE6xlefO

    I'm watching the 27th plus or minus a day for a final closing high. Typically the final intraday high at major tops occurs the day after the final closing high.

    Jim

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