The 2000 top in QQQs; price time areas, smoke and mirrors

In several previous essays I compared the first wave of the left side of the great tops (1987, 2000 and 2007) to the first wave of the right side and concluded they visually appeared to be near reverse mirrors….except that the right sides were accelerated in timing.   Can there be meaningful geometric relations between the two.

Following from research in price time areas that have found meaningful geometric relations between successive growth patterns, can these measurements be used to discover relations between the left and right sides of the 2000 top?  Following is a chart of the 2000 top in QQQs which has drawn on it the red left side and the purple right side:

For future reference, there are 5 rectangles inside the red left final incline and 5 rectangles in the right rectangle.  On each side, the smaller rectangles were subjectively drawn based on a perceived five-wave structure (3 motive and 2 corrective).

Two measurements of price time area of both the right and left sides were made; 1) based on the closing highs and lows and 2) based on the extreme intraday highs and lows.  Things didn’t work out so well at first calculation:

But wait a minute.  The top intraday high of 120.50 occurred on Friday, 3/24/2000.  Who’s to say that if markets were open Saturday or Sunday, that print would have occurred on one of those days.  Similarly, the low closing price occurred on 4/14/2000 which was a Friday.  With that in mind, those dates were varied and look what happens:

The area to the right of the all time closing high and the all time intraday high has ¼ of the area of the left side;  BY BOTH MEASURES.  Well, it should pretty much work out that way because the change in price in both calcs are about the same delta price.  The only variable left to explain that is time.  And we see the number of days in the incline for both calcs was approximately 4 times the decline.

So what’s inferred here? 

First, '4' is 1.414 (the square root of 2 or Pythagoras' hypotenuse of the 1X1 square) to the 4^th power.  The right side of the top in price time area is the fourth square of the hypotenuse of the 1X1 square.  The area of the left halved itself 3 times or divided itself by 1.414^4 to evolve to the area of the right side of the top.

Second, price time areas support the visual observation that the right side of the top appears to mirror the left but for the speed of the decline (see previous study of tops).

Now, what’s the practical application?  Those 5 boxes on the left and 5 boxes on the right of the top I mentioned for further reference.  The area of each of those boxes is sequentially geometrically related to one another and, except for ‘lost motion’, those relations are startlingly recognizable.  Not only that, but each of the boxes of the left can be geometrically related to the box of the same number on the right.  I make this assertion having only today reached these conclusions.  If further research supports this conclusion, the left side of a top has predictive power over the right if the speed of the decline can be figured.

And with that last thought in mind, didn’t Gann say something about the first top or bottom in a trend and its implication for the remainder of the trend?  Seems to me he knew something.  Ya think?

All this said, a minority (myself included) believe the equity markets approach a final and historic top to the 2009-14 bull market this next week.  If so, will the right side of that top mirror the left at an accelerated speed?

Jim