Thursday, May 29, 2014

What's a party without QQQs?

My “observation” has been NDX/QQQs top last in the great tops; 1987, 2000 and 2007.  And with SPX and DJIA having already recorded intraday and closing highs, QQQs/NDX have yet to join the party.  Not a lot of observations supporting my “observation”, 3 in total, but it’s kept me from saying the ‘top is in’ until now.  Specifically, the order of the indices in topping is this:
 Today QQQs closed higher than the heretofore highest close of this bull market – March 6, 2014.  But its intraday high fell short of the 91.36 that was recorded on March 7, 2014.  QQQs are doing the split that Jean-Claude Van Dam did with a foot on each of 2 eighteen wheelers doing 50 MPH in full split.  In my study of QQQs a split high or low close/intraday occurs often, probably more often than not.  Again, an observation.  And frequently when the high close occurs earlier, the following day prints an intraday the high and forms an outside down day-big candle.  Yet again, an observation, not a “theory.”
Based on the indices closing at the high of the day, I’m expecting some continuation tomorrow.  And that’s not to mention the mood of the natives on the floor….popping open bottles of champagne at SPX’ all time high and DJIA within mere points of another all time high.  Won’t take much for QQQs to get that extra $.06. 
Unfortunately, I was looking for a rocket ascension of QQQs to give me the “signature” of a final high.  [The last 4 days of 1987, 2000 and 2007 bulls ended with a large price blowoffs.]  No rocket as yet, but I have one more day left in for my target date for this bull market to end (see essay “SPX 1998 Squares 2014…” and “).  My lowest target is mid/upper 94s for QQQs so there’s a long ways to go.  
A happy ending would be QQQs, SPX and DJIA rocket, fizzle and close lower.
In any event, I have half what I need for a top tomorrow and need the intraday element now.  Errr, and then I don’t need any highs after that.

Note-after the close 5/30/14.  Today SPX and NDX/QQQ made both a higher intraday and closing high.  NDX/QQQs were the last to the party at this point, jointly with SPX.  DJIA made its highest close but failed to make a higher intraday high today. 

What happens next?

I made this point before, back when there wasn't anyone taking any hint of new all time highs in SPX and DJIA seriously.  Remember 'the top is in - March and April'?  And hinting at new 5 year highs in NDX was even less credible.  So I won't make that point again.  But pictures might be worth a thousand words.



Wednesday, May 28, 2014


And today we undertake the venerated topic of gapology.  Yesterday there appeared an opening gap in QQQs/NDX that, if not closed very early today, might have some relevance.  You can call them exhaustion gaps, breakaway gaps, yada yada.  But when they happen in an index they often mean something.  In the following, I’ve provided more descriptive names.  Take for instance the 1929 oh shucks gap in DJI:

Notice it appears at about the 50% price level.  How about the 1987 darn gap in DJI:

Again, it appeared at 50% of the total down move.
There was a whippie upside gap in QQQs on October 29, 1999 and later an oh XXXX gap down on February 15, 2001, the former at 25% of the price move up and the later at 61.8% of the move down.

Finally, such scientific inquiry would be incomplete without the 2007-09 SHTF gap that occurred on October 3, 2008 at 61.8% of the total move down:

With that background, what does yesterday’s opening gap look like:

On the left there is a retrace tool anchored on the April 15, 2014 low and centering the 61.8% level at the gap.  With that, price might be projected to 94.44.  Employing the same method but centering 50% on the gap and I can squeeze out 97.00.
I say squeeze out 97 because I like that number.  No, not because I’m long, but because of some metrics I discussed well more than a month ago.  Here’s the short version.  QQQs first trade was 3/10/1999 whereupon it declined to a then all time low on 3/24/1999 at 48.50.  Exactly 1 year to the day later and exactly 72 points later, QQQs hit their all time high of 120.50.  Exactly.  In your face on the button.  360 degrees of one year and 72 points or a “pentagonal” unit of the circle but in price.
So what.  Well, the 2007-2009 bear low was 25.05 on 11/21/2008.  Plus that interval of 72 and you have 97.05.  I like that number.  There’s one more plus to the 97 number.  At 97, QQQs will complete the mythical “expanding ending diagonal triangle.”  In Frost and Prechter’s view (EWP pg 37) this is similar to the Yetti in that they’ve seen just one so they can’t say whether it exists or not?  In Edwards Magee it’s a broadening formation or something like that.  Regardless, the message to the formation is something is ending.  I’ve been watching that bizarre thing since the April 15 bottom and 97 intersecting that upper boundary would constitute a happy ending and a not so merciful ending for bears.
If this remotely occurs (94 or 97), it will be the rocket I’ve been anticipating as the capstone to the 2009-2014 bull.  That is not a good thing because that would, IMHO, put the markets squarely in line with the character of the moment.  The final rocket up in 2000 was dwarfed by the rapidity and viciousness of the immediately subsequent brick down.  And I have several essays on that.


Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Six squares in SPX and Bradley Cowan's cubic geometry

Bradley Cowan's (BC) Four-Dimensional Stock Market Structures and Cycles (4D) presents stock markets as reflecting a four-dimensional structure of time and space that has long been theorized in nature.  BC uses his Price Time Vectors (PTV) to measure major market movements and to construct cubes of market time and price representing the time periods that form the faces and edges of the markets as they form cubes.  In response to my previous post on this blog, Gary posted a chart on Thetas_pendulum that resonated the cubic structure.  First, a summary of the previous two posts on this blog.

From the previous essays, 1) Bradley Cowan's 17-year Pentagonal Cycle began on about October 1, 1998 and will end about December 7, 2016 (PTCT, pg 48), 2) from that date to present you have 5707 days, 3) from the 2009 to May 24, 2014 you have 1902 days, and 3) their relation is 3.000.  That relation infers the creation of a cube because 3 is the square of the diagonal of a 1X1 cube.  There's more to those posts but that is enough.

In response to that previous blog essay, Gary on Thetas_pendulum provided the following chart:

My understanding is the above was created with the Wave59 root 2 tool which iterated six expansions of root 2.  Count them, six squares fitted within six circles that define the root 2 growth process.  And a cube has how many faces or squares, six of course.  Perhaps the geometric structure is completing imminently?

Now, that sideways tilted square with the c and d points….that's a square which has the same length and width as that of the very first square with points a and b.  Interestingly, the market sits both on the edge of the 6th circle and is a corner of the tilted square with points c, d and 6.

That point 6 is interesting.  To stay within the circle, price would have to decline fairly rapidly.  Not that it will do so.  Other tops went through the respective circle showed little reaction….  Might the 6th be the charm for a top to respect the circle?  From the other side of the coin, I do see some bottoms respecting the integrity of the circle; 1997, 2002 and 2007.  Of course, the 2000 top respected it.

But here's what really concerns me at this juncture:

  • 1) the market might be completing a cubic structure that began with the first day of the current Pentagonal Cycle AND 
  • 2) the market is at the possible end of the greatest bull market in history AND 
  • 3) the last 3 years of a bear 17-year cycle following a 5-year bull market often result in the lowest low of the 17 years.

The best example; 1929 followed one of the greatest bull markets in history and recorded the final low three years later in July, 1932 shortly before the cycle ended in March 1933.

Lots of circumstance.  Draw your own conclusions.


Sunday, May 25, 2014

SPX 1998 squaring 2014 and Bradley Cowan's Pentagonal Cycle

Some background and the set up.  September 1, 1998 is the beginning of Bradley Cowan's 17-year cycle which will be completing in 12/7/2016 (pg 48 Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory).  Cowan has indicated that the last 3 years of 17-year bear cycles (we are in a bear cycle by his definition) which follow large 5-year bull markets will be very difficult.  Those 3 years may print the low of that 17-year cycle…. relating to our current 17-year cycle, lower than 2009.  Most notably, 1929 followed the roaring '20s and that 5-year bull.  And 1932 was the last year of that 17-year cycle.  Of course, we all know what happened from September 1929 to August 1932. 

Recall my recent essay regarding "SPX and Gold" which indicates that if SPX tops at a 1902 close when the market reopens Tuesday, it effectively squared 1902 days from the 3/9/2009 low SPX close.  Actually, 1902 calendar days from 3/9/2009 occurred yesterday, May 24, 2014 but since markets are not open on weekends and holidays, I give the benefit of the doubt to the next previous or subsequent trading day.  So, Tuesday, in my experience, may be considered day 1902.

Now some facts.  The low close for 1998 was 957 on August 31, 1998 even though the low intraday printed a tad lower at 923 on October 8, 1998.  Helio Uranus was at 311 degrees.

So what is the geometric relation between the two periods?

And the sqrt(3) is the diagonal of the cube.  Pretty significant.

So, 1902 calendar days from 3/6/2009 to this coming Tuesday squares price.  And now we find a very meaningful relation between the beginning of the 17-year cycle and that same date in 2014.  What next?  You should have already noticed what comes next.

The lowest closing low on August 31, 1998 was 957.  So what is the relation between price at that date and the indicated close, errr 1902 on the target date.  957 X 2 = 1914.  1914 vs 1902, very close.  Perhaps we have an intraday high at 1914 and close 1902?  Heck, there is a range of the intraday low of 923 and the lowest close of 957 which, when doubled, gives a range that is well within striking distance of SPX' current price.

The above is strong for me.  The remainder gets a bit loose.

What has Uranus been doing during since 311* in 1998?  Well, on 5/14/2014 its at 13* having moved 62* since 1998.  Does that have a relation to price.  Well, we don't know where price will end this 5-year rally so let's pick a number, say that 1914 which is double the 1998 low close.  Price moved 1914 minus the lowest intraday low for 1998 which was 923 or 991.  991 divided by 62 is 15.984.  If you divide by 10 you're darn close to an early Fibonacci iteration of Phi, 1.60 or  Fib #8 divided by Fib #5.

Don't stop now.  Looking at these relations on a Sq of 9 chart (unfortunately, my So9 chart won't shrink down to show Uranus on the outer square), you see, of course, Uranus in 1998 (black longitude line) near sextile Uranus in 2014 (purple longitude line).  Interestingly, the black longitude line intersects cell 933 which was an intraday trade within 10 points of the lowest intraday low in 1998.  So, does the purple 2014 longitude intersect any prices within reach of the current market?  Sure, cell 1954.  I guess maybe that 'ups the enny' from the 1914 intraday.    

I'll be disappointed if next week isn't an interesting week.  My read, given the stuff I've posted about QQQs possibly topping by the end of the week, is that bears may have a hard time.  

But more importantly is how it all relates to the last 3 years of Cowan's 17-year cycle.  Does the 3 year period begin forthwith?  Or is Cowan wrong?


Saturday, May 24, 2014

SPX and "gold"

No, not gold "gold."  A kinda Golden "Square" in SPX soon?  Either this geometry resonates with you or not.

The diagonal of the Golden Rectangle is 1.902 or the sqrt((Phi^2)+(1^2)).  1.902 X 100 = 1902.

The 2009 low close in SPX occurred on 3/9/2009.  3/9/2009 + 1902 = 5/24/2014, today.  So, can we count the close Monday as if the it occurred today?

The intraday high yesterday, 5/23/2014, was 1901 and the close was 1900.  Not quite there.

Gann said to draw angles from important highs and lows…. not just from the bottom up but from the top down as well.  Well, we don't know what the final all time high is going to be, but lets assume its the 100 X the diagonal of the Golden Rectangle.  Here's the artist's rendition:

Were SPX to close 1902 on Monday, game on IMO.*  All that would remain for my happy ending would be for NDX to make the final high as in 1987, 2000 and 2007.**   My 'guess'  for NDX to top  (quite presumptuously assuming such will occur) Friday the 30th as per previous essay.

Thanks to all veterans this holiday,


*Note:  In reviewing the great tops and bottoms (1987, 2000, 2007) the highest close and highest intraday did not necessarily occur on the same day.  More frequently than otherwise (as I recall and haven't re checked) the high close occurred the day before the highest intraday high.  I have an essay for that.

**Note:  When I say NDX make the final high, NDX has not been the first to make the high in a great rally and currently its first among SPX and DJIA with its high on March 7, 2007;  SPX and DJIA made their highest highs only this last week.  I have an essay for that.  

Friday, May 23, 2014

Counting days in QQQs

Since I floated the idea that SPX and QQQs/NDX had to make another and final high (see the “Sorry” essay from Monday) in May at the latest I’ve been trying to further refining the date.  Here’s some square of 9 logic applied to a ‘broadening formation’ formed in QQQs.  First the chart of QQQs that measures five intervals each beginning at the start of the first wave of the broadening, December 13, 2013.  

Cumulative calendar day intervals of 18, 52, 82 and 123 describe the highs and lows of the proposed broadening formation.  The 4 blue vectors on the following square of 9 are those 4 intervals.

Seems a little too ‘co axial’ to be other than some “structure” in the arrangement of time.  Given that we are now 39 calendar days since the last low touch of the bottom boundary on April 15, 2014, the cumulative days is at least 123 + 39 = 162.  Heck, there are only 8 cells left representing May dates.  What are some So9 potential dates next week that would fit the previously proposed required final May high?
I’d propose cell 165 or 170 which are the red vectors on the So9.  Cell 165 would translate to December 13, 2014 + 165 calendar days or Tuesday May 27.  As it turns out, cell 165 is pretty dead on 225 degrees (5 units of 45*) from cell 18 or the first low.  It doesn’t seem so logically related to the cluster of blue vectors representing the other dates.  Maybe 30 degrees?  Last week I’d posted on a board that I liked May 27, but seeing that co axial cluster, I’m not so sure.
Now, cell 170 looks pretty close to the cluster making it nearly co axial.  Cell 170 is Sunday, June 1.  Yeah, it’s a Sunday, no market on Sunday.  But who’s to say had the market been open on Sunday the high would not then have occurred?  Time doesn’t stop because the market does.
And that brings up the same issue again but on a larger scale because several of those intervals begin or end on a Monday or Friday.  I’d argue you can ‘jiggle’ around those Monday and Friday dates making them Saturday or Sunday as you might ‘think’ the markets would have wished them.  Perhaps that cluster might be tighter if I tried to optimize better.  There’s only so much jiggling you can do and I don’t think it’ll change the perception.
I like Friday, May 30 (the last trading day before cell 170, Sunday June 1), but I’m not the one that counts.  If QQQs prints a highest close since 2009 and highest intraday before then, I’ll be watching my stops.

Note: I haven’t checked but SPX’ is in a similar but contracting formation and the high low timing appears to be very similar. 
Note 2: The green vector on the chart is a "Wolfewave" price objective.  If you want some low challenge technical study check out Wolfewaves.  I've seen them work before.  And this particular green vector fits nicely with the upper boundary of broadening, Fib levels and the proposed dates of May 27 and May 30.

Monday, May 19, 2014

Sorry, one more high close in SPX and QQQs, DJIA holds pat

DJIA is good to go.  Based on high monthly closes, DJIA has formed square geometry.  94 months from 2000 top to 2007 top and 79 months from 2007 top to April 2014 top.  That ratio to the 4th power gives you 2.00:

QQQ needs a higher close in May than occurred in March or April in order to make form a geometric relationship.  92 months from 2000 to 2007 top but only 78 months to April 2014.  To form a geometric 3.0 there needs to be a higher close in May than the present April 2014 close. 

Ditto for SPX.  Needs one more high to get that happy ending.

Here's a hierarchy of scenarios if DJIA holds pat and SPX and QQQs make a higher high.

SPX makes a higher high and NDX/QQQs wait a week later.  The best analogy would be 1987.  And when NDX/QQQs made that higher high in 1987, the markets went straight into the crash cycle.

SPX and NDX/QQQs top on the same day.  You have the 2000 top.  In 25 calendar days after 3/24/2000, QQQs lost 36% of their value.  And the meat of the crash hadn't begun.

Of course, none of those things might occur.  Its the "If Then" I've been watching for the last month or so.  The major signature would be the blowoff top in NDX/QQQs that attended 1987, 2000 and 2007 in the last 4 days before the top (NDX/QQQs was a 16% blowoff in 2000).


Followup- SPX and QQQs did make another top, but so did DJIA.  DJIA, however, did not make a higher intraday after QQQs as of May 30, 2014.  Hence, DJIA topped first in my book and SPX and QQQs topped equally last on the same day-both closing and intraday.  That is, if the music stops as of that date.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Can't get no satisfaction

Okay, we have the higher intraday closes that I’ve been projecting since the 4/4/2014 tops.  Forget that I thought the top would be 3/30/14 and then decided it wouldn’t be the high.  Forget that I got carried away with the Cardinal cross on 4/23/14 thinking that day or thereabouts would be the high.  Get the eye back on the ball, just a pure experiment in math; a price time area experiment.
The price time areas of SPX and QQQs in the most recent posts project tops in those indices this week as follows:

The price time area projections are in the first two columns and separate projections from proposed ending diagonal (triangles) are in the third column (QQQs are in a theoretic ending diagonal which may or may not be correct…but the implication is correct I believe).  Those formations are:

And for SPX:

Lots of important Gann angles bounding these formations.  And notice on the QQQs chart that price yesterday approached the red Gann angle from the 2001 era for the fourth time.  Gann had things to say about the 4th attempt.
That’s where things stand.  In terms of the “one more high” I’m pretty much good for all but 1 item; QQQs.  In the great tops (1987, 2000, and 2007) during its existence, Tech has never topped last.  The intraday and high close for QQQs/NDX is currently March 7, 2014.  DJIA and SPX have twice registered new close and intraday highs since that date.  I prefer Tech to make one more top, after SPX and DJIA.  Not happy.
The projections for triangle formations are pretty much visual.  SPX is visually not where it needs to be and QQQs aren’t close.  For an EW guy, they are both in the “truncation zone” to excuse any miss in an EW projection.  Still, no satisfaction.
In terms of price time areas (PTA), this is the real experiment and it does not seem to be going well.  Tech tops last, EW and Gann angles all have their merits but boil down to some subjectivity….err, except tech tops last is more an observation than a method.  SPX is in the area of the PTA projection but it has not closed 1906 nor registered an intraday of 1911 or so.  Simply, not there yet.  And QQQs aren’t close.  Needs 8 points or 9% in 3 days.  And at this moment (pre market on 5/14/14), Nasdaq futures are negative.   QQQs need to make that 4th attempt at that Gann angle the charm and run hard.  Very unlikely.
On a Mick Jagger scale of 1 to 10 on getting ‘no’ satisfaction, I’d say it’s an 8. 


Sunday, May 11, 2014

The 2000 top in QQQs; price time areas, smoke and mirrors

In several previous essays I compared the first wave of the left side of the great tops (1987, 2000 and 2007) to the first wave of the right side and concluded they visually appeared to be near reverse mirrors….except that the right sides were accelerated in timing.   Can there be meaningful geometric relations between the two.
Following from research in price time areas that have found meaningful geometric relations between successive growth patterns, can these measurements be used to discover relations between the left and right sides of the 2000 top?  Following is a chart of the 2000 top in QQQs which has drawn on it the red left side and the purple right side:

For future reference, there are 5 rectangles inside the red left final incline and 5 rectangles in the right rectangle.  On each side, the smaller rectangles were subjectively drawn based on a perceived five-wave structure (3 motive and 2 corrective).
Two measurements of price time area of both the right and left sides were made; 1) based on the closing highs and lows and 2) based on the extreme intraday highs and lows.  Things didn’t work out so well at first calculation:
But wait a minute.  The top intraday high of 120.50 occurred on Friday, 3/24/2000.  Who’s to say that if markets were open Saturday or Sunday, that print would have occurred on one of those days.  Similarly, the low closing price occurred on 4/14/2000 which was a Friday.  With that in mind, those dates were varied and look what happens:
The area to the right of the all time closing high and the all time intraday high has ¼ of the area of the left side;  BY BOTH MEASURES.  Well, it should pretty much work out that way because the change in price in both calcs are about the same delta price.  The only variable left to explain that is time.  And we see the number of days in the incline for both calcs was approximately 4 times the decline.
So what’s inferred here? 
First, '4' is 1.414 (the square root of 2 or Pythagoras' hypotenuse of the 1X1 square) to the 4th power.  The right side of the top in price time area is the fourth square of the hypotenuse of the 1X1 square.  The area of the left halved itself 3 times or divided itself by 1.414^4 to evolve to the area of the right side of the top.
Second, price time areas support the visual observation that the right side of the top appears to mirror the left but for the speed of the decline (see previous study of tops).
Now, what’s the practical application?  Those 5 boxes on the left and 5 boxes on the right of the top I mentioned for further reference.  The area of each of those boxes is sequentially geometrically related to one another and, except for ‘lost motion’, those relations are startlingly recognizable.  Not only that, but each of the boxes of the left can be geometrically related to the box of the same number on the right.  I make this assertion having only today reached these conclusions.  If further research supports this conclusion, the left side of a top has predictive power over the right if the speed of the decline can be figured.
And with that last thought in mind, didn’t Gann say something about the first top or bottom in a trend and its implication for the remainder of the trend?  Seems to me he knew something.  Ya think?
All this said, a minority (myself included) believe the equity markets approach a final and historic top to the 2009-14 bull market this next week.  If so, will the right side of that top mirror the left at an accelerated speed?

Saturday, May 10, 2014

More interesting math and projections

In the previous essay price time areas were developed for the most recent bear and bull (ongoing) markets.  This follow up will look back to further bulls and bears to see how the QQQs and SPX behaved relative to the natural geometric growth measurements.

According to closing highs and lows, QQQs show striking growth patterns relative to the square root of 2 (1.414) and the square of the square of two or 2. 

The yellow highlighted number is the 2000-02 bear's area divided by that of the 1999-2000 bull.  Nearly exactly 2.  But the green highlighted periods did not show growth strictly according to the sqrt(2) or its multiples.  Very close, but not exact. 

Added to that table are projections for QQQs that would drive price to the next logical geometric milestones.  There are three projections that demonstrate how later dates will result in a lower projected closing price on each successive date.  Those projections started with what Frost and Prechter considered a debatable formation, an expanding ending diagonal triangle in QQQs (the black lines are the boundaries).
Aside from the well formed boundaries, there are 3 prominent Gann angles that are converging.  The dark grey downward sloping 1 cent X 2 angle is from the all time high.  The purple upward sloping angle is the zero line 2.236 cent X 1  (2.236 is the sqrt(5) up from the all time low in 2002.  And the yellow upward sloping angle is the zero line 5 cent X 1 from the 2009 low.  They converge at near the projections shown in orange in the table above. I believe these are powerful angles that will provide extreme resistance should the market choose to attempt these levels.  Yesterday QQQs closed at 86.60 so the projections are very unlikely to occur in the coming week.  But that's the math.

Now SPX.  Same table.

Similar to QQQs, the ratios in green are not perfect.  The 2002-07 bull is slightly more than the perfect doubling of the 1X1 square; we'd expect 2.000 not 2.06.  And I can't make heads or tails out of the .319 for 2007-09 bear.  However, if you relate 2007-09 bear to 2000-02 bear (697400 / 459427) you get 1.51.  Very close to the geometric and harmonic 1.5. 

Again, projections for dates next week in the high closing area of 1907 (Monday) to 1904 (Friday).   And again, these levels comport with a conventional ending diagonal triangle that was first posted about a month ago:
The red zero line $1 X 1 angle near perfectly bisects the triangle and, on Monday May 12, that angle is at 1890.  Projected closings in the area of 1907 (Monday) to 1902 (Friday) are just above that Gann angle and about 10 points below the upper boundary of the triangle.  Since we'd expect the intraday high to be higher than the high close (it certainly can't be lower), one might expect the all time high to be in the 1920 area.

Finally, the above tables can be replicated for extreme prices as opposed to closing prices and I've done that.  The projections would be 94.70-94.80 for QQQs highest intraday high and 1910 to 1912 for SPX.

And one more, one more thing.  Remember the green boxes in the tables?  Those prior years did not work out exactly right.  If I fudged in the prices that would force those statistics to exact geometric ratios in QQQs and then based projections on those base years, I'd all of a sudden have much higher projections in the 98.50 area.  That would delight me for a host of geometry reasons.  But I do not remotely consider that result because of those 3 Gann angles in the QQQs chart....and the fact that QQQs closed at 86.80 on Friday. 

Sheesh, just to get to 94.80s you need a 9% rally in 5 trading days....there (much less 98s) would be comparable to the last 4 days of the run-up to the bubble top (16% in 4 trading days).  Rotsa ruck.



Friday, May 9, 2014

Some interesting math

Price time areas in QQQs:

Price time areas in SPX:

The swag is in bold italics.  All prices and dates are the high or low close for that cycle; not the intraday.  A variety of price and time items can be inserted in their place to produce a notable geometric or harmonic result (green highlight). 

Have a great weekend,


Addendum.  Try replicating this worksheet and insert the closing prices for QQQs on March 7, 2014 and for SPX on April 4, 2014.  You won't find any notable relationships inferring they are not the final high.

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Belaboring QQQs' price time area and the current March 7, 2014 high

The current high in QQQs is 91.36 registered on March 7, 2014.  At 5 cents per day (a ‘natural’ currency division, the nickel), it falls wonderfully on a Gann zero line 5 cents X 1 from QQQs low close on March 9, 2014:
Over the time period from the 3/9/2009 low close to the current March 7, 2014 high, QQQs exceeded the 5 cents X 1 by $.16.  And, as we know, was sounded rejected, bottoming on April 14, 2014.
But Gann angles are only "moving averages" and, while they are excellent points of balance at which price might form meaningful pivots, they do not, by themselves, signal the final high in a large trend.
I’ve proposed this before but believe the presentation was as confusing as the thought process at the time.  Price time areas compute the area of a bull or bear based on time and price.  A Gann angle evaluates a single vector and, by itself, does not provide a means to compare an ongoing market to a previous market to find relative proportions.  Bradley Cowan’s “Price Time Vectors” use price and time to create vectors based on the Pythagorean squares formulation of a right triangle and comparing PTVs between trends might signal the completion of trends in process.  Price time areas are similar to PTVs because, I believe, you can compare the ongoing market to previous markets to find proportions. 
Using an arbitrary end point of 5/14/2014 and $94.60, following are the price time areas of two markets; the 2007-09 bear and the ongoing 2009-14 bull:
The markets are related by one of the first iterations of Phi; 1.600 (fib 8 / fib 5).  Four growth cycles of Phi between the two markets.
What would the areas look like for the March 7, 2014 top at 91.36?
I can’t think of a notable number that works with 6.113 or roots of it.  In this methodology, March 7 looks pretty bad.
One last thought.  You can vary the arbitrary 5/14/2014 date and price of 94.60 and, of course the price time area varies from 1.600.  The 94.60 is a point found on the 5 cents X 1 line, so it has some attractiveness as does the 5/14/2014 date for other reasons.  Another attractive price might be 97.05 which is the 3/9/2009 low at 25.05 plus what I call QQQs initial vibration of 72.  The then all time low of QQQs on 3/24/1999 was 48.50 and exactly one year later on 3/24/2000 QQQs recorded the all time high of 120.50, a difference of 72.  You might also notice the 97.05 price is nearly twice the 3/24/1999 low of 48.50.  Hmmm  Here’s what that price on 5/14/2014 would look like in price time areas:
Closer to the ideal of Phi, 1.6118.  In my experience with looking at advances and declines within large bull or bear markets, I find the 1.600 more often than values closer to the ideal value.
Only a week left before 5/14/2014 and QQQs are way away from either 94.60 or 97.05.  If this methodology has validity, it could be presently used with leverage to create a large gain in a single week.  As it stands today (QQQs in the 86 range), that certainly does not appear to be the case.

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

QQQs - Two planets and a price on the square of 9

Every extreme high and low is explained by Saturn Earth since and including the first trade.  All charts are heliocentric with the date of the chart shown at the top left.  The two planets are Earth and Saturn.  Let’s start with the first trade date of 3/10/1999 at $50.59:
Price at longitude 230* exactly opposite Saturn and 45* Earth.
Now the all time high of 120.50 that occurred on 3/24/2000:

Price at 230* opposite Saturn and square Earth.
The all time low of $19.76 on 10/8/2002:

Price at longitude 334* is 40* to Earth and 108 (72* plus 36*) to Saturn.
The 2007 top at 55.07 that occurred 10/31/2007:

This is the messiest one.  Earth at 37*is 120* to price and Saturn’s longitude intersects price.  Saturn Earth is 6* short of trine with an angle of 114*.
And now for 2014.  Saturn Earth conjunct on 5/11/2014 at 230*.  Who’d a thunk that?
And where might you find my point projection of $94.60 QQQ’s top on about 5/14/2014?  I’m going to eyeball it and say 110* which is trine 230* longitude of Saturn Earth conjunct.
Of course, there are other prices that will form aspect to Saturn Earth on 5/11/2014, but the projection is certainly not disputed by Saturn Earth either. 

Unfortunately, the current high of 91.36 on March 7, 2014 can't be ruled out:


Monday, May 5, 2014

Price Time Area under the QQQ square; March 7, 2014 or May 14, 2014?

One item supporting the case that QQQs topped March 7, 2014

A good friend, and probably most people, prefer March 7 as the top in Nasdaq, NDX, QQQs.  I have them topping last or, certainly, not first of the major 3 indices, but you really have to look at the good case that March 7 is "it."  Here's one item supporting that case using QQQs as the proxy for Nasdaq/NDX.
A "natural" price element with which to define QQQs is the nickel.  In other words the 1X1 can be considered one nickel per day.  So, a zero line from QQQs lowest CLOSE (11/21/2008 was the low intraday but 3/9/2009 was a lowest close) looks like this:
And mathematically you have March 9, 2009 to March 7, 2014 (hmmmm, two days different after 5 years) is 1824 days.  1824 CDs X .05 = 91.20.  The March 7, 2014 high was 91.36.  Pretty darn good price and time balance.  Here's the math again:
Price Time Area under the Square

Here’s what my lawyer buddies or my Elliott buddies call an 'alternate case.'  I call it 'price time area under the square.'  I’m sure someone has tried to do this over the years but I have not read it.  The 'square' is the entire time duration of a bear or bull market.  The price is the highest high for that bear or bull.  Using an assumed price of 94.60 on an assumed date of 5/14/2014, here is my calculation of the price time area for the 2007-2009 bear and the 2009-2014 bull:


As we know, the 2009-2014 bull is a lot bigger than the 2007-2009 bear.  Duh.  It’s 6.5659 bigger than the area of the 2007-2009 bear according to the price time areas as I’ve computed them. 
Far more importantly, the fourth root of 6.5659 has what connection to the Fibonacci growth cycle in nature.  It is the 1.60^4.  On May 14, 2014 and at a price of 94.60, that area of will have grown four natural growth cycles. 
[94.60 is based on 1892 calendar days X $.05 and the 5/14/2014 ending date is based on the previously suggested ending diagonal triangle.  Price and time are interchangeable in the area formula so an earlier time can be substituted and it requires only a higher price.  On Sunday May 11 helio Saturn is conjunct Earth, so that might provide a good date as well.]
Addendum.  The number of days is apparently so large, that when I put in 5/11/2014 as the end date, I do not get any substantial change in the ratio of 2014 area divided by 2009 area:

It still boils down to 1.6001 instead of 1.6007.  It actually gets a tad better.

However, if I put in 3/7/2014 and the price high on that day of 91.36, the Phi ratio is totally destroyed.  I do not see anything notable about those ratios at first look.



Friday, May 2, 2014

A quicker DIA suggestion

May 5 at....   166.66666.  Too close to a spooky number not to choose it.   It's 2/3, the inverse of the fifth Fib number divided by the fourth Fib number (and hence an early approximation of Phi), and the diatonic "La", so I had to pick it.  Generally, I've been working with Price Time areas but I originally arrived at the time and price target via work with an ending diagonal triangle (EDT) in DJIA a couple weeks ago.  Here's the EDT in DIA that was originally posted in the context of the DJI chart:
There were some convoluted proportions of the 5 internal sub waves, but there wasn't anything particularly compelling to me.  On the other hand, the low of the EDT at point 3 to the low at point 4 is half the distance of the total height of the EDT (the 50% on the retrace tool).  That suggested to me the price proportions were acceptable with the 166.66 projection.

The Price Time area was my primary interest with the EDT having gotten me to a workable approximation.  Here's the big picture:
With the obvious equivalence of time between the two triangles (942 and 942), the areas are a perfect function of price (two price numbers multiplied by the same time constant of 942 days).  That makes it simple but I'll do the work long hand and show the areas of the smaller and larger rectangles as 12,117 and 15,694, respectively. 

The difference in those rectangles or 3,577 is the growth between them, duh.  Now, we can do this two ways; either by finding the growth to be 3,577 / 12,117 being 29.52% or 12,117 divided by 3,577 / 12,177 to find 3.3875.  Let's look at the 3.3875.  Simply, the cubic root of 3.3875 is.....1.502.  Back to the third and fourth Fibonacci numbers or 3 /2  = 1.500.  Cool.  Diatonic "SO".  Cooler. 

But remember when I said there wasn't anything in the internal proportions of the EDT was 'compelling' to me?  I lied.  Look at the waves...even and odd:
The odd waves of EDT have a proportion to the whole of 29.58%.  Rather similar to the proportion of the price growth in the larger rectangle to the smaller rectangle.... 3,577 / 12,117 = 29.52%. 

Spooky.  Err, only spooky if it works, that is.  Something to tell the do I translate it to Common Core counting?


Thursday, May 1, 2014

A quickie SPY suggestion

Got to start looking at the freely traded markets instead of the indices.  So here's a biased (I'm a hopeless bear) look at SPY's move since the March 6, 2009 bottom:
Two rectangles that evenly divide the time period that is based on a suggested top on May 5 at 193.  As it turns out, the equal rectangles divide the suggested period on exactly the 2011 low and panic low of October 4, 2011.  Interesting.

More noteworthy, the price time area (at 10 cents per day) from zero forms the square root of 2.  Similarly, the 10 cents X 1 angle bisects a seeming expanding diagonal triangle (EDT) at the top right of the chart (black boundaries).

Here's a drill down on the suggested EDT:

Look at the time components of the internal waves of the suggested triangle:

Certainly, a rocket in 3 days could get SPY to 193 but.....