Friday, December 29, 2017

Clarifying the prediction of 7/12/2018 DJIA 25207

Too often I let my bias slip into the math.  I feel compelled to clarify the prediction.  From the second essay posted on Christmas:

DJIA will reach its highest intraday high on Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 25207

My imagination has worked its magic.  I use the math and geodesic experience of "Robert Gordon's seven days" and the data points of the dates and price levels of the high and low of the Great Crash (September 3, 1929 and July 8, 1932) to extrapolate the future date and price level above.

The math does not tell me it will be the all-time highest high or the final high.

I believe it to be all too logical that the data points establishing the future prediction destines it to be 1) DJIA's highest high and 2) that it will be a lasting high.

Not to be outdone by myself and again based upon the calculation being based upon the Great Crash data points, I imagine the prediction to be the end of the 1932 bull market.

If I had the refined method to check dates and price levels between now and the predicted date, I could rule in or out a high greater than 25207.  I could rule out a higher high after the predicted date.

But I do not have elaborated the method and back tested as yet and I know its going to take me a lot of work.  Perhaps July 18, 2018 will come and go before I have that ability, if I will ever have it.

So, there's a line in the sand between the math and the imagination.  Imagination is a great thing and I've made some great discoveries regarding Mr. Gann and his work, in my opinion, using imagination to lead me.  But there's a point where I need to draw a line.  The mathematic calculation would say:

DJIA must touch 25207 on July 12, 2018.

The math combined with my understanding of its basis in data points of the Great Crash leads me, through logic and imagination, to say:

DJIA will reach its highest intraday high of all time on Thursday, July 12, 2018 at 25207

What happens between now and that date, I don't know.  Or afterwards, I don't know.  I just imagine.

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Many lessons learned over the last couple years of studying WD Gann....mostly through the hard way of error.  I think this clarification is important therapy for me and I don't want to go back and slip it into an already published essay.  Right or wrong it needs to be a part of the record.  Caveat emptor.

Jim Ross


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