Friday, June 24, 2016

Brexit, 168 and 84 years ago, and the Dow

As anyone reading the essays on this blog know, I have presented the case for and structure of WD Gann having encoded into "The Tunnel Thru the Air" a "Map of Time."  The MOT spans the 15341 vertical lines of the MOT and when "doubled" (as per page 45 of TTTTA) gives you 30,682 days or 84 years and when "redoubled" (again, per page 45) gives you 61,364 days or 168 years.  At 168 years, the period of the MOT is 1/15th of the Biblical Great Week of 2520 years, or John Dee's Monas Heirglyphyca philosopher stone number of 252 X 10.  84 years descending downward at 2 days per line on the left side of the MOT and 84 years ascending upward at 2 days per line on the right side of the MOT.  The left side of the MOT (84 years) is theorized to form a basis for similar events repeating on the right side of the MOT (84 years).

And so, on the last day of the 168-year period of the MOT, that being June 21, 2016, history should be in the midst of repeating that which occurred 168 years ago.  And there are those indications; 1848 was the Year of Revolutions in Europe where yesterday we witnessed the ongoing signs of dissolution in Europe with the Brexit vote, 1848 was the year of "sea to signing sea" with the forced acquisition of the U.S. southwest from Mexico where this year we hear of increased, though minor, talk of Texas exiting the Union and many states ready to vote for the Constitutional Convention....  In 1848, Europe had Karl Marx and Fredrich actively promoting the socialist utopia and revolution and now we have the first credible presidential candidate promoting socialism and "political revolution.  In 1848, Europe, amid the revolutions, France had a great recession that spread to other countries where the 2016 U.S. stock market is reaching/has reached its highest all time high; something that would appear to be an exact opposite....  Many more similarities and opposites between 1848 and 2016.

What about the half-MOT period?  What happened in 2016-84 = 1932?   In the last weeks of the half-MOT period and beginning June 3, 1932, there were a series of earthquakes in Jalisco Mexico that ended with a 7.0M tremor on the last day of the half-MOT (the summer solstice) where, in 2016, where on June 7, 2016 there was a 6.2M earthquake centered at Jalisco Mexico with after tremors. More relevant to speculators, on July 8, 1932 or 16 days after the June 22, 1932 half-MOT point, the Dow reached its lowest low of the Great Depression.

Wouldn't we expect some similarity at both the 168-year MOT endpoints relative to the 84-year half-point?  Or perfect opposites?

It's not a clean comparison, after all, many have noted "history rhymes" as opposed to necessarily repeating.  Revolutions, generally, don't have a "bright-line" between their beginning and end.  There isn't a single date to say "this is the one day on which the revolution occurred."  And, despite what many people think, earthquakes are a process of pre shock, main shock and after shock.

Look at the evidence and make up your own mind.  Of course, anyone reading my work knows where I'm "at."  With that bias in mind, I ask myself, was yesterday's Brexit outcome a defining moment in the stock market?  And I think "Yes, but..."

The "but" is, the July 8, 1932 bottom of the Great Depression occurred 16 days after the halfway point of the MOT.  The current MOT ended on June 21, 2016, and, poetically, symmetrically, I'd like to think the final all-time high or opposite the great July 8, 1932 low, is yet to occur.  Another 2 weeks to make it poetic, symmetric, perfectly opposite.

Looks pretty bad for that "guess" doesn't it.  As I began writing this essay at 5:45am EDT this morning, Dow futures were down 453 and the other indices were down 3% plus.  Presently, at 8am EDT, DJIA is down 529 or 2.95%.  I'd say, that 'guess' is way out there on the 'fat tail' of probability based on today's events and market position.

Would it make poetic sense to show the top of the greatest stock market bull to have topped on May 15, 2015 at 18351, some 14 months before the end of the MOT on June 21, 2016?   Wouldn't it make more poetic and symmetric sense a higher high is forthcoming in the near immediate future?

So, that gives me a subjective belief there will be a great stock market whiplash in the next 2 weeks.  Not mathematic by any means.  A guess based on the MOT.  I have proved the line counting and format of the MOT by several encoded devices Mr. Gann provided for just that purpose; proving its mathematic integrity.  But I've also proven to myself, I don't know how to use it.  A compass in the hands of a person who doesn't know how to use it remains accurate despite the holder's ignorance.  And the user remains lost.

With my subjective, poetic and symmetric license and the MOT as a general background, and though immensely improbable, I expect a final high in the market in the first two weeks of July 2016 followed by years of lower lows.  I have enough confidence in my forecast, I will put 0 dollars on it.  Nada.

One last notation.  I have recently (June 20-21) discovered mathematic / geometric relationships in the 1921-1938 DJIA market that encourage me that to believe I will find the mathematic "solution" to the current stock market.  The "solution" is not of the nature as say, Elliot Wave or Fourier wave, or astrology, or any form of correlation reduced to mere probability or educated/scientific guess; all being "solutions" that give a savvy speculator an 'edge' to the market.  I'm thinking 2+2=4, not 3 < (2+2 =) < 6 .  

The solution I am perceiving is a Euclidian and Descartesian solution to the four-dimension reality of the stock market.  WD Gann could do it and proved it.  It's "out there."

Jim Ross

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