Amidst the most powerful description and proof of WD Gann's mathematic and scientific methods, "The Ticker Interview," an independent party follows him on the market floor for 25 days as he enters and closes 286 trades incurring only 22 losses.
Reflect for a moment on your "Random Walk" training (indoctrination). Yes, there's a trend in large numbers which "Random Walk" allows, but certainly never amounting to greater than a fair commission rate (my background on Random Walk is, alas, dated). Forget the dollar weighting, 286 coin flips, how many do you think will be heads or tails? Certainly not a distribution of 264 heads and only 22 tails. Not in my lifetime of flipping. Only Nasim Taleb's "Tony the streetwise bookie" might make...errr, heads or tails out of that flipping fantasy.
I have long felt and expressed my feeling that Mr. Gann's perfect and exact methods did not allow for 22 losses. The only reason he'd 22 losses... "take a dive"... would be to make it fashionable. Would it be safe for a person to demonstrate such perfection? His associate and friend Renato Alghini makes the case in his "Preface to Second Printing" of "The Magic Word" by WD Gann:
So I ponder, did Mr. Gann take 22 losses to make it look good? If so, that willy wabbit would have left something to let us know he did. Or at least, to let those of us who believe in what he so often styled as methods he discovered which rise to the level of accuracy of pure deterministic mathematics. So, what in that Ticker Interview paragraph might be the 'tell?'
22. A "clew" perhaps? I woke up, again attending our K-9s last night, and laid there, thereafter thinking the number 22. 22 losses. That's a lot like the only two-digit numbers found in the acrostic telestic encoding of WD Gann's "The Tunnel Thru the Air." In TTTTA there were only three two-digit numbers in 15341 acrostic letters and 15341 telestic letters; 11 as an acrostic, 77 as a telestic and 88 as a telestic. Like the two-digit number, 22, each was two-digit and the same number. 11, 77 and 88 are numbers about which I've written several times.
Okay, we have 22. Look at the remaining 264 trades that were not losses. How many of the consecutive two-digit numbers comprised of a single digit, e.g , 11, 22, 33....99, can be derived from the number 264? All of them:
- Three numbers, 66, 33 and 11 can be derived by dividing 264 by 2 three times and then dividing by 3.
- Three numbers, 88, 44 and 22 can be derived by dividing 264 by 3 three once and 2 two times.
- And the remaining three numbers can be derived by adding combinations of already derived two-digit numbers.
Not proof for anyone who doesn't already 'have faith.' For randomites, its just fun with numbers.
It sure is intriguing to the finite math guy. Yeah, I know, far too much time on my hands.
Jim Ross
Hi
ReplyDeleteExcellent blog on Gann Research.
How to take the price step to draw the gann angle of 1x1, 1x2....so on. Is it square root of the low or high? Is it correct.
Thanks with regards,
Thank you Beck. The 1X1,1X2...., the never risk more than 10%, the 45* angle, the important months, days.... They are all where I started and spent many hours, many hundreds of hours, trying to figure out the stock market. These were methods Mr. Gann developed, in my opinion, to help people who would be unable or unwilling to understand the real mathematics he discovered. It requires first an understanding of beyond Euclidian geometry (although a solution can be found in 2 dimensions) because the world is four dimensional.
ReplyDeleteMost people can't understand 4 dimensional geometry, which, indeed, does not exist that we can prove.
Most people will not accept that everything in the future is determinable according to mathematic principles (which include cycle and vibration).
So he did not waste his time trying to teach those things. He gave people reflections of that highest level of mathematics, one of the most important being the 45* or 1X1 and its iterations. It revolted me when a supposed "Gann expert" said to me "Mr. Gann was a selfish man because he never gave away his greatest secrets, Phi being the greatest." I tried to say to him I found Phi in crystal clear spelling, "dePisa" spelled, the math in perfect expression, dozens of times in TTTTA. But he was so self important and prideful he was all about telling me how much smarter and better a person he was than Mr. Gann.
I hope you'll read my blog knowing I don't know all these things that I say Mr. Gann has encoded in TTTTA and likely other books such as The Magic Word. The best I can hope for is to write down the things I see (or imagine I see) that are unusual and someday, maybe, I or someone will understand some little part of what Mr. Gann did.
Jim
true. Thanks for your time. :)
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