Friday, March 21, 2014

Could Paul Volcker be Ben Bernanke’s fraternal analog?

Probably not, genetically that is.  After all Paul is Paul Bunyan stature, big.  And, Ben is not.  Giving rise to that question, however, is this chart generously allowed to be re published by ZigZag:

Incredible chart IMO.  The triangles are equal sections, in months, of the same time periods within each Chairman’s term.  Pretty exact.  The first triangle resolved very shortly before the top of 8/25/1987.  And the second appears to be approaching a similar top.  
So how close are these triangles to similarity or to recognizable geometric ratios?  Break that one chart down into a chart of Volcker’s term and a chart of Bernanke’s, convert them to calendar day charts and anchor the monthly time periods to the exact day for each top and bottom.  The following chart has the monthly bars in blue at the bottom for reference and at the top of the chart you have the number of calendar days in red, now anchored to exact tops and bottoms:
Volcker  

Bernanke 

Try as I might, the charts’ calendar days are not exact so here is a  spreadsheet:

Would it surprise anyone that each of the time periods demonstrates a Golden Section?

Once Volcker’s term ended there was another 14 calendar days to the 8/25/1987 top.  The similarity has ended in that regard as the current market is already 46 calendar days beyond Bernanke’s swan song as of this writing.  
I was tempted to suggest a solution to that incongruity but I won’t.  You can write your own ending for now or wait to see what the future might say about it…or both.

Jim

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