Sunday, March 30, 2014

Support for a projected SPX top of $1892; the 1987 price interval OR something higher?

Looking for some support for the square of 9 derived price of $1892 (see previous post) I decided to try and replicate a similar procedure that I’d seen used with DJIA and the 1982 price interval extrapolated to 1987.  [In Appendix D to “Market Science” by Brad Cowan multiples of the price interval of 395 was found in 1982 to explain 1987 ranges in DJIA.]  The ‘price interval’ is the SPX high on 8/25/1987 minus the low price at the bottom on 10/22/1987 or 121.43 derived in the table below.
Let’s see if there’s some coincidence between the 10/22/1987 low and the 3/24/2000 top:

Pretty much a 11 X 121.43 to two significant digits.  And then a major bear market.  Actually, a huge dot.com crash in Nasdaq.  [ It doesn’t work for the move up from 10/10/2002 to 10/11/2007 high.] That’s the way it worked in DJIA but the multiple was 395. 
Now the critical part; is the move from the 2009 low to the projected high a multiple of $121.43?
 
Yup.  10 X 121.43 to two significant digits.  It’ll make a great appendix to something if it happens….perhaps a revival of "Mad" magazine?
If I wanted an exact multiple of 10, I'd want to see 1881.09 (666.79 + 10*121.43) but the intraday high has already exceeded that level twice.  The closing price has not reached that level.  Perhaps the calc needs to use closing prices....yada yada.  Regardless of the hair splitting one might undertake, SPX is at a very critical level of vibration.
Always a fly in the ointment.  Let's take the above methodology one step farther...to the 11th multiple:
That puts SPX at 2002 but what I immediately spot is the 11th multiple of the interval is....exactly twice the 3/9/2009 low.  And the ending price is three times the beginning price.  That is troubling.  For that to occur and for the square of 9 projection to work the market needs to continue climbing for another 120 or so days (a 1X1 angle) I believe.  A high that triples the beginning price and puts time in the crash worthy August time frame.

I'm still in the 'sooner rather than later' but with my eyes wide open.
Jim

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