SPX top in on March 21, 2014?, a study of major tops

An analyst previously on board with March 28, 2014 capitulated this week in favor of SPX having printed the ‘final’ high on March 21.  If “the” top is in, what might we expect within the week from now?

In 1987, SPX topped on 8/25/1987 and within the next 14 calendar days it lost 9%:  NDX topped later on 10/6/1987 and, within 14 calendar days, lost a full 33.5% of its value.

 

In 2000, SPX and QQQs topped on 3/24/2000.  Within 11 calendar days, SPX lost about 9%.  Within 11 days, QQQs lost 26%.

In 2007, SPX topped on 10/11/2007 and within 11 calendar days lost an unremarkable 5.4%. QQQs topped later on 10/31/07 and lost 11% in the next 11 calendar days.

If, then, SPX topped March 21, the minimum first minor wave down would be take SPX down about 5% by Wednesday of next week.  Of course, if the 2007 scenario is correct we might expect that QQQs held the market up for that extra 20 days as it made its final high.  Regardless, 5% by next Wednesday would be a reasonable minimum expectation based on the history cited.

Personally, I’ll stick with the one more QQQs high for another…. err…3 trading days (Monday)...and SPX with another marginal high.  I’ve long felt the 2000 model with SPX and QQQs making a high on 3/24/2000 some 2 plus months after DJIA is the best fit.  At this date, the reigning DJIA high is 12/31/2013, two weeks earlier than the comparable 2000 DJIA top. 

Regardless of what constitutes a 'happy ending' for me, if SPX was a March 21 top, then expect something very very soon. 

Jim.