How big a rally would be big? Studying some Gann angles and QQQs

Big is relative.  Sitting in my then Big 8 CPA partner’s office we were discussing a $25M immaterial adjustment we were going “pass” making our Fortune 500 client book before earnings release.  We’d just finished talking about a $25K adjustment that we required that a much smaller private business make because it was material.  The partner shook his head and said “We can’t make them book the $25M because it is clearly immaterial, but, you know Jim, some numbers are just plain big.”

Start with a reasonable step value by fitting the 1X1 angle to the 2002 bottom to the 2007 top in QQQs.  The step value is $.0191 per day.  Here’s a chart of that time period with the blue vector the 1X1 set at that step.  Perfect:

Now let’s look at the red 2X1 Gann angle at that step anchored to the QQQ bottom (the QQQ bottom was in November 2008 in advance of the other indices):

The 2008 rally to date pushes the 2X1 or twice the ascent of 2002-2007.  Not shabby.  But let’s drill on the last 52 days of the rally which I have projected to occur the weekend of March 30, 2014 at QQQs $94:

To achieve $94 based on the low that occurred 53 calendar days before March 30, 2014 (I picked 52 for several reasons) I need a 10X1 rocket (the heavy black vector).  That seems pretty material.

But let’s look back at the 2000 period.  From the March 10, 1999 natal time and price, QQQs sustained just shy a 10X1 angle to the March 24, 2000 top.  That’s 10X1 for a full year as opposed to 53 days:

 

One last time, drill down on the last 53 days of that one-year rally.  The low comparable to 2014 occurred on January 31, 2000, actually 54 calendar days before the March 24, 2000 top but I’ll “pass” on the one-day difference between 2000 and 2014.  Okay, fit a Gann angle to January 31, 2000 bottom to March 24, 2000 top with the same step value as all the other angles.  It is the brown 36X1 angle.

10X1  for 53 calendar days in 2014 is a really big number..... but next to 36X1 in 2000?  Immaterial.

By the way, a 54 day period is 1.85 days different from the 51.15 day 4^th Spiral Calendar interval.  I wonder if Brach Cowan would be interested in the number 36 being half the Pentagonal interval.  Or 10 being 1/36th of the circle?

Jim