Thursday, March 27, 2014

Time symmetry, a further study in 2000 QQQs


Nature likes symmetry.  The orbit of planets about the Sun are non linear but, ultimately over the various grand cycles, symmetry occurs.  As Gann point out in his seemingly odd essay on “The Human Body” we have 2 of many of our prominent body parts located symmetrically on our bodies.  Not so oddly he encourages us to study historic prices, times and angles in order to understand how the position of a stock relates to a given starting point.  Behaviorally, we want to see symmetry, rhythm, diatonic harmony, vibration.  Historic pivot times and price combined with a starting time and price and an understanding of symmetry provide a means to project future stock position.  [There’s much more to be taken from that very short meaningful essay.]
So, following my theme of QQQs in 2000, might we investigate time symmetry?


Let’s look at the first most startling observation (IMO) about the above chart.  Look at the very bottom time measurement line, 376 calendar days from the March 24, 2000 top to the very significant interim low on April 4, 2001 (black arrow on the right).  What’s so significant?  Well, look left to the time measurement extending left from March 24, 2000 and ending on exactly March 17, 1999 (black left arrow).  That is the first day where the databases to which I have access have trade quotes for QQQs.  I would assume March 17, 1999 is the “first trade” for QQQs although I see in numerous places the first trade actually occurred on March 10, 1999.  Regardless if there are 376 on the left side or 383, there’s an ‘in your face’ symmetry between the first trade date and the prominent April 4, 2000 bottom.
But it doesn’t end there.  Move time measurements inwards and you’ll find numerous symmetries between extreme price pivots pre and post top.  Notice I say “extreme price pivots” because it appears the pivots are not always bottom-bottom or top-top.  Rather, and I hate to use the cycle analyst’s favorite excuse for his failed projection, somewhere prices “inverted” from top-top or bottom-bottom to top-bottom.  Enough said there. Just expect symmetrical pivots on the right side based on pivots on the left and trade the turn whatever’s next in line.

Let’s drill down a little farther with another chart of the 2000 top:

My gosh, nothing symmetrical in the first micro squiggles after the top on March 24, 2000!!!  It seems the “focus” of the symmetry is a bit off.  Well, March 24, 2000 was not the focus of the symmetry we seek.  Perhaps the true focus occurred on Saturday or Sunday or dead in between.  Let’s re chart the 2000 top and measure the periods to the left using Saturday March 25, 2000 as the focus and measure right with Sunday March 26, 2000 as the focus (effectively this allows us to anchor between those 2 days).
That’s much better.  Symmetry achieved.  Let’s consider a concept from Chris Carolan’s “The Spiral Calendar” page 53
The focus of a spiral or partial spiral will tend to fall on a moon phase near a solar seasonal change, and/or an emotional market turning point, or a golden section division of a larger spiral.
[Just for interest, March 24, 25, and 26 are all within 4-6 days of the March 20, 2000 spring equinox and straddle the full moon (March 20) and last quarter moon of that year (March 28).]
The weekend dates of March 24, 2000 proved, in retrospect, to have been a very powerful emotional market high and certainly near the spring equinox.
So why wouldn’t a left handed spiral (the decreasing intervals of the left side of the chart) have the March 24, 25, 26 dates as a focus AND the right side of the chart (the increasing intervals of the left side of the chart) as a joint focus for both.  As such, the right side of the chart becomes a mirror reverse of the left.
Symmetry.

If March 30, 2014 proves to be a focus point, might we predict the critical dates thereafter?  If March 21, 2014 is, as some have suggested "the" major market high, then shouldn't the participating indices already have begun showing signs of symmetry?  Questions for a later date.
Jim

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