March 30, 2014 - Spiral Calendar Correlation of 1914, 1929 and 2014

Introduction.  The Spiral Calendar (SC) discovered by Chris Carolan projects the Fibonacci series denominated in synodic lunar months from important historic market pivots to projected future market pivots.  His discovery related 1929 to 1987 using the 29^th Fibonacci number as follows:

September 3, 1929 + sqrt(514229) X 29.53 = August 25, 1987 

In narrative, the highest high before the 1929 Crash on September 3, 1929 plus the square root of the 29^th Fibonacci number multiplied by the synodic lunar month (29.53 days per month) equals August 25, 1987, the date of the highest high before, arguably, the second most highly regarded crash in market history.  The 29^th SC interval is computed as sqrt(514229) X 29.53 calendar days = 21,176 calendar days. 

Carolan demonstrated that 3 other critical dates in development of the 1929 crash projected the same monument dates in the construction of the 1987 crash.  Four dates comprising a 1987 “analog” of the 1929 crash.  And then he developed a methodology for projecting historic market pivots to projected future dates using the Fibonacci series and the synodic lunar month codified in Spiral Calendar intervals.

March 30, 2014.  With that introduction, I will explain the alarm I perceive regarding March 30, 2014 and its relation to the two most important market events in history (again, arguably), the 1914 market closure and the 1929 market crash. 

In Chapter 6 of The Spiral Calendar Chris Carolan presents a spreadsheet methodology of projecting market pivots by adding the many SC intervals (one for each of the 30 or so Fibonacci numbers) to the past market pivot and projecting a future date.  When I did this for the last 15 years for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and for the Nasdaq 100 tracking stock, QQQs I found an abnormal number of projected dates clustered around the weekend of March 30, 2014; March 28 (Friday), 29, 30 and 31 (Monday).  This suggested that March 30, 2014 was a highly likely candidate for a market pivot.  Not to bore and confuse with the spreadsheet deriving this date, here is a chart representation:

The vertical red and blue lines represent SC interval dates radiated backwards from March 30, 2014.  In other words, March 30, 2014 minus a SC interval equals one of the vertical lines.  Note how most verticals are all falling on or very near a market pivot; not on every market pivot but on a pivot.  (As it is envisioned, there is more than one spiral ongoing at any time in the market and unmarked pivots are thought to be related to other spirals.)

Can that correlation be chance?  When I use the spreadsheet to project dates, I simply do not find such a cluster of dates as I found with the weekend of March 30, 2014 (e.g. March 28, 29, 30 and 31).

Criticism.  The problem with March 30, 2014 is that it is projected from very recent market pivots.  Carolan comments on page 63 that:

The degree, or sequence number, of the Spiral Calendar unit in a market time span is generally proportionate to the magnitude of the market event.

In other words, the 29^th SC interval that related 9/3/1929 to 8/25/1987 was a very large interval spanning 21,175 days and, therefore, the magnitude of 1987 would be expected to be proportionately as large.  And it was.  In contrast, the correlations that I found in the chart linked above are very small.  They involve SC intervals 1 through 11 at best (the 11^th SC interval is only 279 days).  

The criticism, in a nutshell, is that, yes, a pivot might be projected for the weekend of March 30, 2014 (either that Friday or that Monday), but there isn’t a long term SC interval to suggest it will be a significant market event.  Not like the 9/3/1929 or 8/25/1987 event.

Rebuttal.  That criticism comes from an incomplete understanding and application of the SC methodology and, in specific, the following instructions on page 53:

The focus of a spiral or partial spiral will tend to fall on 1) a moon phase near a solar seasonal change, 2) and/or an emotional market turning point, or 3) a golden section division of a larger spiral.

I added the 1, 2 and 3 to make a point.  We, as Spiral Calendar adopters, concentrate on the spreadsheet method.  We take an emotional market high or low (item 2 above), apply a SC interval and if two historic pivots produce the same projected date, we feel like the date might be a pivot.  Indeed, March 30, 2014 was derived that way.  But March 30, 2014 hasn’t any long term SC correlations to historic market pivots.  Believe me I have looked as have others.

Wait a minute.  We have applied only method 2 of the above instructions. Perhaps method 3 will provide a needed correlation to a historic market pivot with a larger SC interval.

Applying method 3.  I believe the following is the spirit of item 3, and I will be using the actual specifics of the SC correlation I am suggesting.  Take two historic market pivots; the 9/3/1929 top and the date, 9/23/1914, which occurred during the 1914 market closure..  1929 is the reputed greatest market event in history.  But the 4 ½ month 1914 market closure with the attendant 24.4% decline was, arguably, the most important event in market history. The market closed on July 31, 1914 with the onset of WWI and reopened to a level 24.4% lower on December 12, 1914.  For the analyst, did the 1914 market bottom occur on July 31 or December 12?  Or any date in between?  I pick 9/23/1914 for a reason.

So, take the dates of the two greatest pivots in market history, the 31^st SC interval (e.g. 34.263 calendar days), the Golden Section between and you get March 30, 2014:

9/3/1929 minus 9/23/1914 = 5,459 days

5,459 days X (1 - .618) = 2,085 days

9/23/1914 plus 2,085 days = 6/8/1920 and

6/8/1920 plus the 31st SC interval = 3/30/1914

Applying method 1.  Method 2 was implemented via the spreadsheet and it gave rise to identifying the weekend of March 30, 2014.  Method 3 was implemented and suggests the March 30, 2014 weekend will be ‘proportionately large.’  What about method 1;  that the focus of a spiral will fall on a moon phase near a solar seasonal change.

Carolan suggests there must be solar and lunar harmony of projections.  The solar changes are the solstices and the equinoxes and the lunar changes are the synodic lunar month.  He further claries with his experience that the most important dates for a focus are the full moon after a Winter Solstice or a the new moon nearest the Spring Equinox. 

March 30, 2014 is the date of the new moon nearest the Spring Equinox of March 20, 2014.

Some clarification.  In 1914 and 1929 there was only one primary market index; DJIA.  In 2014 there are many and DJIA is a very thin index of only a few stocks.  SPX, NDX, Nasdaq and others all more broadly characterize the nature of the totality of equity markets..  Bradley Cowan and others argue that the DJIA was the great speculative market index of the early 1900s but the Nasdaq and related indices are the speculative markets of contemporary times.  Perhaps the DJIA may not track the broader markets as in the past?

Conclusion.  March 30, 2014 may or may not be a significant market pivot.  I have presented short term SC evidence that it will be a pivot of some degree.  I have presented what I believe is a correct application of the method that derives that date from a large interval suggesting the magnitude of the projected 3/30/2014 pivot will be large.  At the date of this writing, March 17, 2014, should a large pivot occur in the next two weeks, it would be logical to assume it will be a high (the previous low is thousands of points lower for DJIA).  

Because DJIA is presently a narrow and less speculative market as noted above, I will not be dissatisfied if the March 30, 2014 weekend does not print a DJIA high.  I will be dissatisfied if Nasdaq (and to a lesser extent SPX) does not make all time and final highs before an historic decline into later 2014, 2015 and possibly 2016.

One last thought. Did WD Gann say we should look 100 years back in the past as one resource for creating projections of the future?  And what happened in 1914?  And when was the highest high before the 1914 closing of the stock market?  If you consider 1914 as a crash cycle separate from 1912, then the pre 1914 crash was March 20, 1914.  Can we compare the timing then and now?  In terms of market….and geopolitical conflict?  Time will tell.  

Jim Ross
March 17, 2014