Monday, March 31, 2014

Price intervals, DJIA, implications according to Bradley Cowan (“BC”) and the mother of all triple tops

In Market Science II (appendix C pg 117) BC points out several examples of extreme movements of DJIA according to squares of the 395 price interval.  Most notably in my mind:

Between the 1929 and 1987 tops there were pretty darn close to 6 squares of 395.  Here are bunch of contemporary examples:

You can take the rounded # of intervals and come up with some pretty interesting ratios.  18/12=1.5, 20/12=1.667, 26/18=1.44.
[In a separate essay I proposed SPX vibrates according to a 121.43 square.]

What’s the cause?  Per BC:
“Briefly, this happens when the PTV (Price Time Vectors) is pointing parallel to either the price or time axes, defining the limits of the square.”
Two components of that explanation.  First, parallel to the price or time axes and second, the limits of the square.
In “Four Dimensional Stock Market Structures and Cycles” aka 4D, BC develops his concept of PTV and the repetitive patterns of equilateral price triangles in the market.  In developing those concepts he describes the normal upright nature of market triangles.  They will randomly tilt right and left.  On page 27 he describes a triangle that tilts hard right relative to the price and time axes.  That puts the left side of the triangle very flat relative to the time axis.  That doesn’t exactly comport with the greatest rally in history, namely 2009 to 2014.  Very steep price rise.  But perhaps that’s not what is being measured.  Rather the very flat side being highlighted by the intervals is the period 2000 to 2014.  Fourteen years during which time the DJIA top increased from 11908 to just under 17000.  An upward slope but far less than a 1X1 Gann angle.  That’s the mother of all triple tops (triple tops do not have to be flat, they can slope upwards). 
So what happens to the right side of the equilateral triangle when the left side of the price triangle has such a flat top?   BC gives the example of DJIA from March to June 1991.  Sideways, upward sloping and the two days down 10%.  The triangle preceding the drop had a left side tilted well right.
The second part of BC’s discussion above; a square is ending.  Obviously, a cycle is ending.  The cubic structures on pages 84 and 85 show price retracing the edge of the square/cube in both the 1929-1932 and 8/1987-12/1987 declines.  When large squares complete, it would seem BC is saying ‘stuff’ will happen.  And what greater bull market has there ever been?  Arguably, 2009-14 is (soon to be 'was'?) the greatest.  And what has been the greatest of all triple tops?
 
Jim

1 comment:

  1. Hi Jim,
    mother of ALL triple-tops should be FTSE100 ?!
    Have a look :)

    ReplyDelete

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