Variety; 1) The Map of Time, advance and setback 2) Revisiting the improbability of a telestic word of 6 e's

A little brush up in two areas of my research into WD Gann's "The Tunnel Thru the Air."

The "Map of Time" introduced on 9/11/2015 works…. and works better than billed in defining the 9/11/01 attack on the WTC.  Revisit first the section of the Map that center on 9/11/2001 but with a modification and an additional column:

The modification is on the first line at the bottom of the spreadsheet (which you can't see).  Yesterday's spreadsheet started with just the date 8/2/1932 in the first line from which to count.  With that, you have 11-Sep-01 in the very right most column.  Today, I have 2 dates on that bottom most line from which we are counting up and, as a result, the 11-Sep-01 lands on the column that is 2nd from the left.  Not a big deal, simply working with the mathematic mechanics of the spreadsheet.

But the big deal is the column in which there is a blue highlighted 304.  Recall there were 2977 non terrorists who died on 9/11 and, when including the 19 terrorists, there were 2,996 deaths.

Take the cumulative line number counting from the top, which is 2,693, and add the line number counting from the first line of the chapter, which is 283.  You get 2,976, one short of the total civilian deaths on 9/11.  I rationalized the 1 off yesterday, but will not today.

Now the money shot.  Take the same 2,693 counting from the top and add the number of lines counting from the bottom of the chapter which is the blue highlighted 304.  You get 2997, exactly one line greater than the total deaths of 2996.

One short and one greater than the actual count.  Hmmm.  A greater and a lesser.  I find that entirely improbable absent the designer's effort to design it that way.

On the downside, I have tried to derive the number of deaths for similar events such as the December 7, 1941 surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.  Somewhat close but not close enough to be compelling.  I have ideas on altering the structure of the spreadsheet.

The improbability of an telestic of 6 e's.  When several months ago I discovered six consecrative e's ending sentences in the Foreword to "The Tunnel Thru the Air," the statistical improbability of such an event was so great as to convince me I should be looking for compelling acrostic words.  And it has been incredible.

But I was wrong about that statistical improbability; by a pretty large exponent.  The improbability I reckoned, though compelling to me, was vastly understated.

Previously, I defined the probability based on an infinite population of letters and the frequency we would find occurrences of 6 sentences as very very small.  And I was throwing in the "infinite population" where TTTTA has a mere 15300 lines and, of those lines, perhaps only 11,000 lines that have a first letter (many lines are blank lines)….a very conservative estimate.

Here's the joint probability analysis according to a finite mathematics CPA.  Say we flip a fair coin, err having 2 sides, one heads one tails which is balanced and without any bias.  There is a 50% change it will be a hear.  The probability is 1 / 2.  Our goal is to flip it six times and record six straight heads.  The 6-fold "joint probability will be 1.56% or 1.56 in 100.

Anyone wants to flip a coin until you get 6 in a row?  How many hours will that take?

So, I incorrectly modeled the 6 e's problem as saying we now have 26 sided fair coin.  What would that probability be?

Of course, this model assumes any one every letter in the alphabet has the same probability of being selected when such is not true.  "E" is a very popular letter so I've read, as is s, r, d and others.  Still, 1.49 in 100 million is a pretty small number even if we have to parse it down for relative popularity of the letter e.

But I was wrong.  The 26 letters are not all the characters that might be placed in the first position of a line.  There are 10 digits that could be placed there; 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9.  That makes 36 possibilities (I'm altogether ignoring punctation marks), not 26.  The probability, ignoring relative 'popularity' of letters and numbers would be 1.45 in 10 trillion (if I have my zeros right):

I'll admit that the above isn't correct because I've assumed away relative probability between differing characters ('e' is more frequently ending a line that an 'x' or a 'z,' for example).  I'm sure I've missed something else; that's a 100% probability.  But 1.45 in 10 trillion is a pretty small number with which to begin when you're trying to pare it down to a manageable improbability.  If you do, I'll throw at you the fact that in the finite population of 15,300 lines and there are many more occurrences of 5 e's and still more occurrences of 4 e's and still more occurrences of 3 e'.

So, if you are back testing me, try searching for a book that has 6 consecutive non poem lines that begin with an 'e' or any specific letter.  Errr, if you finally get 6 consecutive heads.

Here is what proved to me TTTTA would have dozens, if not hundreds, of acrostic words which the author wanted us to find and use as a teaching device…and possibly a multi themed map:

And one last thought.  If you start flipping a coin to see how long it takes to get 6 heads in a row….well, you have less of a life that I have.

This stuff isn't random.  Mr. Gann designed his training curriculum in TTTTA and it is teaching math and physics among other systems.

Jim Ross