Bradley Cowan developed the Price Time Vector (PTV) to
simultaneously measure price and time.
It Pythagoras’ measurement of the hypotenuse of the right triangle. Once the sides of triangles identified in a
chart are measured with the PTV, their relationships should demonstrate
recognizable geometric figures such as sqrt(2), sqrt(3), Phi….
So what do you measure and compare since we have this move
up from 11/21/2008 (NDX and QQQ bottomed earlier than SPX and DJIA that
followed 3 months later)? How about a
really grand triangle with the dramatic 3/24/2000 top, equally dramatic 10/8/2002
bottom and the date of interest, 3/7/2014.
Here’s what it looks like on software that measures PTVs:
Pretty slick chart eh? I did not use the software to compute the values on that
chart because it uses calendar months and I wanted to use the synodic lunar
month (not much difference-err, I think). And I
wanted to use a month calculation with days preserved in decimals (the squaring
formula is reputed as working best with 3 digit values). Here are the calcs:
I’ve strung it out so the exact steps in calc’ing the PTV
can be seen. Of the 3 PTVs that are
calculated, two have values I recognize.
Most will easily recognize AB/BC = 1.5 which is the 4th
Fibonacci number divided by the 3rd and a key number in planar geometry, proportions, Diatonic scale, etc.
otherwise. AC/BC=1.106 doesn’t seem to
ring a bell, but to the 7th power it becomes 2.02. Of course, 2 is the square of the diagonal of
a 1X1 square and touted by Cowan as the most important number in the market
(including Phi).
I’d say March 7, 2014, on a very grand scale spanning from the
2000 top, qualifies for a good place for the final top. But I’d expect prominent tops to have good
geometry even if they weren't the final top. I bet I could find some good geometry with the interim April 26, 2010 Flash Crash top.
So how about my favorite date and price. I have written about numerous items that led
me to that date and time ranging from Spiral Calendar indications and price
intervals as explained in various foregoing essays. Most dramatic of the "circumstances" I’ve
identified is the 72 price interval and time associated with QQQs. QQQs first trade was March 10, 1999 and it
declined immediately to a low of 48.50 on March 24, 1999. Then it moved 72 points (as in "Pentagonal") higher in one
year -to the penny and to the day - topping at 120.50 on March 24, 2000.
If that doesn’t make one a believer in geometry and vibration, read no
further. My infatuation with 97.05 then
comes from the most recent extreme low at 25.05 on 11/21/2008 plus the price interval of
72.
All circumstance if PTV squaring does not work in my
opinion. So here we go:
AB/AC=1.664 or the fifth Fibonacci number divided by the fourth. Plenty of uses of that number; diatonic
scale, planetary cycles…. And
AC/BC=1.084. I’m sure that really sprang
out at you. Well, it would’ve if you
took it to the sixth power….it is 1.618.
I had to trick you a bit to get that exact number. As I explained, I really like 97.05 for a top
because of the price interval. But it
only got me to 1.610. Hey, 1.61 is not too shabby but 1.618 has that special flair. So I feathered
price down to 96.82 on April 18, 2014 under the rationalization of Gann’s ‘lost
motion.’
So which one is better?
March 7, 2014 or a yet to materialize 97.05 on April 18, 2014 (Monday
April 21, 2014 would be permissible)? I
like the latter even though only 2 days ago QQQs needed 14% in 2 weeks. As of today’s close it only needs 11% in 7
trading days. No sweat. Trifecta odds.
By the way. I just
went back and recalc’d the PTVs for both days using a 30-day month instead of a
synodic lunar month. Nothing but garbage
PTV ratios. Not a one of them was a
recognizable geometric proportion.
What’s the golfer’s maxim “I’d rather be lucky than good.”
Jim
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