Wednesday, April 16, 2014

This time its different? part 2

3% in the last 4 trading days to the 2007 top:

http://screencast.com/t/JDaCn8y2

15.8% in the last 3 trading days prior to the 2000 top:

http://screencast.com/t/SVcJuqdPO

5% in the last 3 trading days prior to the 1987 top:

http://screencast.com/t/JqmijNhODx9

3 consecutive significantly positive trading days in a topping area and you might think about it...but maybe not too hard, I mean, rallies do occur.  But if you're otherwise in the area of a major top and get 15% in 3 consecutive positive days, you might think about the year 2000.  And what happened pretty much immediately after the 2000 and the 1987 tops?  In 2000 there was a 33% decline in 14 calendar days.  No dinner and dancing….  In 1987, because NDX topped late on 10/6/1987, you had the crash just 16 calendar days later.  2007 took a while to get its mojo ramped.

More interesting, if "all the tops" are behind us as the bandwagon of analysts had loaded up last month, its really taking a long time to get started to the downside in earnest.  Heck, NDX only today took out the 2/5/2014 low today (4/15/2014) and this is more than a month after the 3/7/2014 NDX top.  And when it printed today, the lower low today, it immediately bounced 70 points.   Megaphone/expanding ending diagonal triangle in NDX?

Things are really seeming different this time?


You might want to file this in the "If…., then I do this" file pending circumstances that might or might not manifest.

Jim

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