Thursday, April 17, 2014

What if the indices are tracing out ‘ending diagonal triangles’?

[This is a throwaway essay.  Too much time on my hands.]

So how’d my re reading Gann’s ‘Stock Market Course’ dredge up Elliott Wave ending diagonal triangles?  Gann suggests that the intersections of angles from consecutive highs or lows suggest a change in trend might occur near the date of that intersection (not near the price).  So I pulled a couple charts from a couple weeks ago where I’d suggested the indices might be forming ending diagonal triangles (EDT, not the Lipitor type ED).  All the newsletters I read say the top is in and the Grand Crossing (see “Looking back 100 years regarding the Grand Cross) of next week will turn the markets down severely.  I read or heard two commentaries today alone that speculated the astro clusters will be so bad next week that they’d suspect middle east war or yet bigger problems in the Ukraine.  I’m not an astro guy so I’ll defer to their better opinion (not being facetious BTW).  Nevertheless, they really look like EDTs to me.  Hmmm, my Elliott Wave credentials are suspect as well and I don’t long term count or mind proper numbering anymore.  Anyway, my interest is examining whether the angle crossings might provide some notable dates.

Here’s the first chart of SPX where the green vectors are the 1X1 down from point 1 and 2X1 down from point 2. 
Gann says the tops should be approximately the same price level and they aren’t on the above chart.  So I took the liberty of beginning both at the price level of point 1.  They intersect at Sunday May 11, 2011.
Here’s the second chart of QQQs which would be sporting an expanding EDT.
The two price points are at radically different prices so it clearly does not comply with Gann’s instructions.  Still, I applied the two angles beginning at the same price but the differing dates of point 1 and point 2 and came up with an intersection at Friday May 16.  That makes sense as NDX, Nasdaq and QQQs have never topped last (see previous essay)….at least until this time?
Here’s the final chart of DJIA and it’s the only one of the 3 that has point 1 and 2 at about the same price level.  I drew 3 angles instead of just the 2X1 this time.  The 3 intersections were May 5 (4X1), May 21 (3X1) and July 6 (2X1).  At the 2X1, Gann’s preferred angle in this method, the two tops infer a future pivot all the way out in July?  No happy ending.  But I did spy the blue 1X1 up from the 3/6/2009 bottom intersected the top EDT boundary on Saturday May 10.  Comports with the SPX date of May 11 and both precede the QQQs’ projected topping date of May 16.  All is good. 
May 10/11 (Saturday and Sunday) for point 5 high in SPX and DJIA and May 16 for QQQs. 
Of course, if they aren’t EDTs I can claim they were but “truncated” (Hochberg taught me that).  Or if they are EDTs and resolve as EDTs with higher highs, the legions of analysts can claim “inversion.” 
In either case, when the February low falls, its "game on."
Jim

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