The Flash Crash top was exactly 4 years ago as of Saturday. The actual crash occurred on May 6. What did Gann say about annual anniversaries?
The 15th Spiral Calendar interval originates with, of course, the 15th Fibonacci number 610. The interval is 729.34 days or rather close to 2 years. If you take April 26, 2010 plus 729.34 days you get 4/24/2012. April 23, 2012 was a notable spike bottom prior to the final top preceding the 2012 panic. Now take 729.34 days and you get....today. [Large Spiral Calendar intervals are often off by several days.] See the essay:
Something spooky. February 5, 2010 was a prominent low preceding the final 80 day runup to the April 26, 2010 top. And what does February 5, 2014 look like?
Each of the major contemporary tops - 1987, 2000 and 2007 - were preceded by a notable rally in the last 3-4 days before the top. 2000 was a blowoff rally to the top which was followed, immediately, by the greatest of the first wave declines. See the essay:
Tech did not top first in any of the contemporary tops. Yet, as it stands, NDX topped March 7, 2014 while DJIA (intraday) and SPX achieved their current tops on April 4, 2014. Can it be different this time? See the essay:
You might consider a crude and probably incorrect Elliott Wave rational (rationalization) that might enable a top at near this time in each of the indices; the ending diagonal triangle. The DJIA EDT indicates a very slightly higher high. The SPX EDT indicates a significantly higher high (about 1918) and the QQQs EDT indicates a very significantly higher high (since it is the only expanding EDT of the three). Don't forget, the market likes to truncate fifth waves just to screw up Steven Hochberg's fine work (I have no idea what EWI is considering). See the essays:
Add April 26, 2010 to the mix of notable contemporary panics. One thing that is notable about 2010 is that ALL three indices (DJIA, SPX, NDX) topped on THAT same day. Its also notable that the Flash Crash occurred only 12 calendar days later. Again, NDX didn't top first, but it really was different. Perhaps if this possible rally materializes it builds a top a lot of people have been expecting (what did Gann say about 5 year bull markets). Microsoft and other notables report after the bell; gas on the fire or water to truncate the rally?
And what would the metrics of the aftermath of a notable top look like? See essays:
http://markettimeandpricetownhall.blogspot.com/2014/03/time-symmetry-further-study-in-2000-qqqs.html
So, perhaps "If xxxxx happens, then I'll xxxxxx." should be considered?
I feel an essay coming on.
Jim
It goes without saying but should be said. As the gap up disappeared today, one should be prepared. The April 11-16 lows in indices and the February 5 low are lines in the sand. If the first is exceeded, attention should be perked. If the February 5 low falls, I'd be prepared for major downside.
ReplyDeleteConversely, an outside up day today (gap disappears, low exceeds yesterday's and market recovers to a new high by the close) and the EDTs remain viable.
Jim