QQQs – Far too elegant to occur

This little note follows on essays regarding price intervals (vibrations) in markets.  In SPX multiples of the difference (interval) between the 1987 top and 1987 crash bottom of 121.43 explain the major price extremes in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2007 and 2009.  As identified by Bradley Cowan, a vibration of 395 routinely recurs at major market tops and bottoms in DJIA.  QQQs is an interesting possibility to repeat a vibration because it was very recently (1999) first traded.

QQQs was first traded on 3/10/1999 and very promptly made a bottom on 3/24/1999 at 48.50.  One year later, QQQs topped at 120.50, an increase of exactly 72 points to the penny and to the day.  Half of the square of 12 and one fifth the degrees in the circle.  The subject of a book on market geometry, Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory.  72 points and 365 calendar days.

I saw the possible tie in to QQQs several weeks ago but that’s a pretty large percentage “price interval” to be replicated as had occurred in SPX and DJIA.  Some of the price extremes in 2000-2009 can be tied to divisions of 72 points but the ‘full Monty?’  Try this:

 

I backed into a date of April 18, 2014 for other reasons.  Ignoring that, when you fit  38.2%, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci price AND time levels to QQQs with a target of 97.05 on April 18, 2014, this is what you get:

The 38.2% and 61.8% are within $2 of a perfect price fit and a matter of just a couple days of a perfect time fit (38.2% misses by 2 days and 61.8% misses by a day).  The 50% time level perfectly intersects the day of the 2011 panic bottom.  [To me, the 50% to the day is the 'tell' if there is one.  It doesn’t all hang together though.  Delta price  / delta time = 7200 / 1974 = 3.647 which exceeds the Phi ^2 +1. 

I read analysts touting time or price but not both...or at least, infrequently.  I wonder if this is the stronger argument?  Hmmm. 

It certainly doesn’t look much better than the odds of the trifecta.  Not after the indices did the outside down day thing yesterday and continued down today.  From the bottom 84.95, today, QQQs would need 14.2% in two weeks.  It’s been done before (QQQs put on 19 points in the 8 calendar days before the 2000 top) but it’s hardly a bookable trade.  More a conversation piece unless you want the 100 to 1 nag in the fifth to win by a length and going away.  How far out on the fat tail would that be Nassim? 

Alas.

Jim