That previous essay linked above proposed a thought I'd had for several months. Where the mid cycle of the 1848-2016 WD Gann "Map of Time" marked the low of the Great Depression stock market, would it not be "poetic and symmetric" for the end of the MOT to mark the all time highest high in DJIA? I proposed that thought the day the Brexit vote hit the market, last Friday, dropping the Dow to a low print of 17,356 that day and a low print of 17,063 the subsequent Monday. Didn't look like a good time to make that proposition.
To be more specific about the basis of the proposition, the Dow Jones Industrial Average printed 40.56 on July 8, 1932 which was 17 calendar days after the mid point of the 168-year MOT cycle. A half MOT later would be July 8, 2016. WD Gann enthusiasts claim Mr. Gann predicted the 1932 low was evidenced by his timing the July 4, 1932 final Battle of Washington DC for that day, ending the fictional "Great War in the Air." I agree, as if that means something.
The existence of the MOT created in the structure of WD Gann's "The Tunnel Thru the Air" begins on the 1848 summer solstice, has a mid point at the 1932 summer solstice and ended on the 2016 summer solstice and began again the next day, June 22, 2016. Today, July 1, 2016, we are at the 10th day of the new MOT. If we were to count from July 8, 1932 one full MOT 168 years period, the end of that period would be July 7, 2016 or next Thursday and the 17th day would be July 8, 2016.
Those are some metrics. Now, for what I believe is going on. And to derive 19,000 as an addition to the 'proposition.'
The structure of price-time (space-time). We all know the conjured up belief that the market is "geometric." After all, Mr. Gann said so, dozens, hundreds of books have said so, thousands of us believe it. But there isn't anyone that has publicly proven, other than WD Gann IMO, the consistent predictive ability of those supposed geometric properties. At least, that I can find and read. Some say Dr. Baumring, but I haven't sprung for the pricey materials and I don't accept his trading record in metals, though great and something I'd beg to have, the rival of the Ticker Interview's 286 trades.
Bradley Cowan, in "Four Dimensional Market Structure and Cycles" explains the DJIA unfolds as tetrahedrons fitting within the cube (notably pages 74 to 84 which you might compare to TTTTA pages 75 to 84). Again, FWIW, I agree. Look at it:
Obviously, the above is a 2 dimensional view of what might be perceived as a 3 dimensional Platonic solid (a tetrahedron with x, y and z coordinates) that ultimately represents a 4 dimensional phenomenon (the supposed hyper tetrahedron having x, y, z and t coordinates).
How can we model the 4 dimensional case of the tetrahedron in 2 dimensions? "As above, so below" as Mr. Gann paraphrased from the Bible. As well, but without adequate proof, I suggest that the "Einstein Editor," a pen name of WD Gann and who published a series of articles in Scientific American, plainly of (paraphrased out of recollection) "a perfectly good geometry describing four dimensional calculations (the Lorenz transformation) can be created from Euclidian (planar geometry) principles and Descartesian coordinates (i.e. x, y and z).
Where we can't "see" four dimensions because we do not have the "third eye" about which Sir Arthur Eddington spoke, we can understand the order reflected in lesser dimensions. In three dimensions, we know that to get from point A to point C on a straight line we must pass through point B. We know that if we are to live 70 years that, at some point, we are 55 years of age. There is order both in space and in time. Given a route from say Virginia Beach to Brooklyn and a perfectly known and constant speed of travel and absence of traffic, we can compute exactly where we will be 3 hours into the trip. There is order both in time and space; jointly.
With Mr. Cowan's "Price Time Vector" (PTV, application of the Pythagorean 3-4-5 triangle to markets where the sides A and B are time and distance, properly "squared") and the concept of the tetrahedron in 2 dimension perspective orientation, I can "see" one number pop up recurrently and with perceived but not yet documented predictably; some permutation of Phi. Be it, the third root of Phi, its square, its fourth iteration in the Fibonacci sequence (5/3=1.666).... Phi is always in the relation between paired sides of the 2 dimensional representing of the tetrahedron. Time and space are related by Phi. At least, in my most recent days of experimentation with these concepts. Its a work in progress.
Again, "as above, so below." If order exists in the fourth dimension, then that order must have reflection in lesser dimensions. Can't prove it. Maybe this is "Rossie's Axiom" but I suspect its hardly unique in thought; I'm just not widely knowledgeable to know otherwise. If all things are ordered then the laws of the fourth dimension must have structure in relationships and, therefore, calculations that might be performed in the second dimension; the stock market.
So, do we find phi in the stock market and how does this tie to July 7/8, 2016 and 19,000?
July 7, 2016 and Dow 19000, a test of the Phi structure of space-time? Consider some math:
Two years ago, I'd oogle at that math and think it, whether it had already occurred or was yet to occur, as spiritual, itself too compelling not to believe it would not occur. It might be spiritual, but its also mathematic. And actually, I did retrospectively find Phi from the 1932 low having related to the 2000 high (from recollection). I find tons of meaningless numbers forming persuasive and compelling arguments for tops and bottoms in the market. A few of them actually worked, but only a few. I've made market 'bets' on them...some very big bets. I've written essays, early on, in this blog which are testaments to my ignorance that I won't delete because I want to remember where I've been. Some numbers are truly 'centers of gravity' like Pi, Phi, 168, 252..... and when you make guesses, if you use them, I believe you increase your odds. But that's the allusion to order, not the order. They tempt us that an order exists, but they aren't the order, itself. They aren't the final answer.
What's different this time, to echo a recent essay and market sentiment? First, many experimental notations of Phi as the arbiter between time and price (space) as measured by the PTV. Second, the order of DJIA is the tetrahedron as it rotates in our 2 dimensional chart view of the market time and price. Third, the MOT. In 1932, the low occurred 17 days after the MOTs half point and 17 days after the MOT's end is July 8, 2016. Those are the propositions and July 8, 2016 Dow 19,000 is the "test." I would accept July 7 under the thought that July 8, 1932 was a beginning and July 7, 2016 would be the last day before the next beginning....thus the end.
*******
The "test"... I give it 60% 40%. Last week, I had only the time element in mind when I proposed July 8 as being a sentimental, "poetic and symmetric" point at which DJIA might wish to put in its highest all time high. Last week, at the 17,300 or so pre market when I posted that essay, it looked very bad to utter such at thing. But now, at 17,929 (yesterday's close), well, not so much. 19,000 seems a much greater stretch given how far we've already come. But isn't that the how the great bulls most typically end? The "parabolic top." As time runs out, price vibrates wildly as I recall.
So, why double down and call for 19,000 on or before July 8? Its not a call. Its a test. Not advice, not proven math but a proposition as a test of the possible math that might be found.
In the highly unlikely DJIA pushes another 1100 points from yesterday's close in 5 trading days.... Well, if it happens then that's great, but I wouldn't hesitate a second to close my position at 19,000 or before. In other areas of study, I find suggestion, only suggestion, of very concerning events around the July 8 and after. Better safe than otherwise.
Jim Ross
Jim, It's the devil's advocate speaking...Based on Gann's great discovery, the Financial Table, I cant see a high here, it's just not time. More likely 2018-2019.
ReplyDeleteLooking back at 1868 I cannot see anything in the way the markets traded that would suggest a high in this new MOT. Wouldn't you expect something to have happened 168 years ago, given you want something from 84 years to repeat?
Hi George,
DeleteI'm something of a blinders on person, really studying only TTTTA these days. My work with the Financial Table was long ago. I think of it as a device where WDG tried to help people with a simplified reflection of his work.
You may have mistakenly said 1868 because 168 years ago was 1848. And in 1848 there was a great recession and bank panic in Europe. In most respects, Europe and the US were opposites in 1848. Europe was in the Year of Revolutions and dissembling of nations (of course, those nations were reformed differently) whereas the US was in nation building mode with having acquired the southwest in the Mexican American War.
Yes, I've written several times about all the things that did happen in 1848 that are repeating, quite graphically, in 2016. Many many essays on those things. Karl Marx, the socialist, fomenting revolution vs Bernie Sanders, the socialist, espousing supposed peaceful revolution, cholera outbreak in New York and New Orleans in 1848 vs ebola and Zika in 2015-16.
A major problem that WDG discusses in TTTTA is that prediction is limited only by the access to the reliable and relevant historic data. And that's the biggest problem with similarity between 1848 and 2016. A second big problem is the diffusion of events. Even earthquakes, which we think happen in a blink of an eye, don't. They can take months and years to develop. The Jalisco earthquakes of 1932 lasted from June 3, 1932 to June 22, 1932; shock after shock.
So, I somewhat overstate my case when I look for a high on July 7 or 8 reflective of the half MOT. I hope that my overstatement is well forewarned in the essay. At the same time, when you say you'd expect something to have happened 168 years ago...well, you overstate your case, as devils advocates do, as well. You've pretty well said you're simply looking at the other side of the coin and I appreciate that.
But, I did do a lot of study on 1848, the years before and the years after, and there is incredible similarity to 2016. History is repeating. This is the 240th year of the US this Monday and I believe Mr. Gann has told us it is the sunset of the Nation; the first line on page 130. Remember Robert Gordon and Edna Quinton noting that things tend to happen on Robert's birthday.
It isn't apparent from the view of an inattentive person sitting in his recliner in say Hilton Head SC. But if you're a rancher on the border in southwest Texas watching the immigrants walk across your land...I think you have a different perspective. Its a process, not a point in time.
I think we will look back a decade from now and say the US, as founded, had ended in 2016, just as France and 54 other nations in Europe were forever changed in 1848, the Year of Revolutions.
Jim
Yes I did mean 1848, but I cant edit, but I knew you'd pick that error up. As much as you imply that the GFT is simplified, I have never seen an explanation of how/why the GFT is broken up into the sections that it is. Some years get one letter (C), others 2 (B) etc.
DeleteThank you for the 1848 overview, very good indeed.
My only reservation with the MOT is an 84 year cycle. I get the math etc but Gann really didnt talk much about the 84. Of course he mentioned it, but not nearly as much as others like the Master 60 year. The first few pages of Tunnel have several numbers alluded to or mentioned (several times), but I cant see/find 84.
No, I don't mean to imply the GFT is simplified. I mean it is a generally predictive for persons who can't understand his mathematic methods (everyone). Just like the 45* is generally predictive for people that have a bare understanding of geometry in 2 dimensions. He wanted to help people that could not understand his methods but he could get only specific because that would lose their interest. Most of us are too lazy to do the work even if we have the ability.
DeleteThere is much much more to 1848, like the great Irish potato famine that stretched from 1846 or so to 1849 (from recollection). Killed a large portion of Irelands 6 million people and there was a mass exodus to continental Europe and to the US. The migration cause the 1848 Cholera epidemic in Europe that followed the Irish to ports of New York and New Orleans.
About the 84 year cycle. Some of the things that Mr. Gann thinks the very most important, he never talks about. John Dee for example is never mentioned yet his name appears 45 times as a telestic (never as an acrostic). How do I know its John Dee? There is a 46th mention of him that is the 23rd appearance...it is the number "007." Its a teaching of Philo of Alexander that the most important things are not explained in simple narrative. You bury them so people have to work to understand meaning.
Still about 84, read page 84. Then consider if 84 is close to a grand planetary cycle...and it is. Take the further division of 42...isn't that pretty close to the much heralded 40 year cycle?
About the first few pages of TTTTA there are some very important numbers. And not just the first several numbered pages. There are extremely notable, elemental numbers in the Foreword. But they are, generally, single digit. Again, read page 84.
Now, one last item. The doubling of 84. Read page 168. Another of Philo's rules of allegory are repetition of key concepts. Do you find anything repeated on page 168. Indeed. Let the past bury the past. But up and doing things that are positive.
Thanks for helping me think this morning. Next pot of coffee is brewing.
Jim