Refined target top in QQQ and reflection on Plummer’s “The Law of Vibration”

Pretty much the same price and timing that was derived in several essays on ending diagonal triangles; 94.73 on May 14, 2014.  Just a few of a multitude of interesting geometries created by that projection.

This newest look is inspired by a first reading of Tony Plummer’s “The Law of Vibration; The Revelation of William D. Gann.”  The title is a bit misleading because Plummer derives several insights by first exploring and reconciling hidden information in Gann’s work, George I. Guedjieff’s “Beelzibub’s Tales” and Chapter 12 of St. Mathews Gospel.  Plummer creates the argument that each of the above created hidden records of their understanding of Fibonacci, the Law of Three, the Law of Seven, the diatonic scale, etc.  I do not believe Plummer believes he revealed an actionable secret out of his work.  But documenting the methods of concealing information he revealed was an incredible bunch of heavy lifting.  This is a book of documentation and not a ‘how to’ book IMO.  Many years ago I read the James Smithson review of the book and, unfortunately, I did not then read it.  I find Smithson's review curious.

In chapter 13, Plummer uses Gann’s method of drawing squares to evaluate his derivation of the similar patterns of energy waves of the three subjects (Gann, Guedjieff and St. Timothy).   Plummer created a Golden Rectangle to encapsulate the first portions of an energy pattern and used it as a basis to project the end of the second portion of the pattern using the 45* angle.  All three worked out pretty close thus demonstrating their similarity.  I’ve got to take his word that he proved what he says he proved because there isn’t a way for me to learn gematria or count pages and paragraphs in TTTA.

So, here’s what I put together to section the limited history of QQQs into logical sections that can arguably fit the energy patterns Plummer describes:

The entire history of QQQs is subdivided into 6 rectangles, only 3 of which have price activity.  If you have a background in Plummer and the wave form he is suggesting in this book (not the Plummer pulse wave but the derivation of the waves in this book), please do not try to fit it to the above chart.  Rather, I’ve sectioned the chart based on QQQs natal date, the 2002 low, the 2009 closing low and the projected top.  I believe I could argue the subject wave form could be fitted to those three market sections, but that’s not worth the time to consider.

Two points before we part with the chart.  First, this is not the way Plummer constructed his Golden Rectangles in Chapter 13.  It’s simply a logical fitting based on extreme price.  Plummer does not describe the following math work I’ve put together.  Plummer does not compute areas.  It is de novo.  Second, that red zero line crisscrossing the chart; it is a slope of 2.236 cents X 1.  That is based on what I have identified as the ‘initial vibration’ in QQQs.  On March 24, 1999, QQQs recorded its first extreme bottom at 48.50.  One year later to the day QQQs recorded its all time high at  120.50 on March 24, 2000.  That 72 points in one year or one fifth of the circle; hence, the square root of five.  The fit from the 10/10/2002 origin to the present highs is incredible.

Now here’s the math supporting the areas of 6 rectangles and the total rectangle as derived from the above chart:

Being an accountant, I computed the area (time X price) of the entire history of QQQs (ALCJ), broke down every rectangle in that larger rectangle into 6 component rectangles and then reconciled the areas of the components to the whole.  The 3 rectangles having price activity are highlighted in yellow above.  They are ABCD, EFDG and KIGJ.  Here are just a couple more of the statistics that may be derived:

The areas appear to be structurally related IMO.

That’s as far as I go.  The rabbit hole goes far far deeper.  IF the projection as suggested substantially occurs in the dollar amount (94.73) and timing (May 14, 2014), further investigation is clearly warranted.

So that you don’t have to go back and find the expanding ending diagonal triangle for QQQs that originally came up with a higher high in the second week of May in the 94 area, here it is:

There are traditional contracting EDTs in DJIA and SPX that are included in the related essays.  The QQQs EDT might well be a 4^th wave expanding triangle with a 5^th wave currently in progress.

Jim

Wedgies, ouch

[Most of this is based on my now 40 year old study of Edwards and Magee.  I haven’t tried to appreciably spruce up my recollection so allow my memory some lapses.]

Edwards and Magee’s (that’s “E&M”, not “S&M”) Technical Analysis of Stock Trends was charting 101 for ‘70s finance students.  As recently as 5 years ago I found it on an ivy league grad school class syllabus.  Written in the late ‘40s early ‘50s, it is often cited as the Bible of TA.  Many painful hand-drawn charts.  It codified Dow Theory and reduced to rules and likelihood the probable trade success of chart formations.  At least, that’s the pigeon hole to which I’ve filed E&M.

Their concepts were rigorously developed in the context of the meaning of primary and secondary trends in Dow Theory.  For example, the head and shoulders was restricted to ending only primary and secondary trends and there was a very well defined and unique pattern of trading volume during the development of the pattern. Today, every newbie (and oldie like me) applies the H&S at the drop of a hat to intraday trading and without regard to volume.  E&M are rolling over in their graves.  But, we often see the short term H&S work.  Maybe the difference is E&M were defining high probability trades where today’s trader is doing just that; trading….or gambling as it may sometimes devolve.

Enter E&M's definition of the wedge.  Upper and lower trend line boundaries that confine price activity.  A wedge is upward sloping in contrast to a triangle.  And the boundaries of a wedge narrow over its life as opposed to the channel.    E&M would say a wedge is a, relatively, short term formation, not one that reverses a primary or secondary trend.  And E&M would say volume decreases over the life of the wedge until it just “peters out” (I do remember that, because, as a 20 year old wannabe something, "peters out" had a giggle factor).  I also remember that when the wedge ends, price falls because there simply aren’t any buyers left.  Price returns to the origin of the wedge in a “fraction” of the time it took to build the wedge.

Like the intraday H&S folks, I’ll depart from the rigorous E&M rules and suggest that there are 2 longer term wedges since the March 2009 bottom.

Note the volume decline over the duration of the proposed wedges.  Note also the time proportions to date; (134 weeks / 113 weeks)^2 = 1.4062.  Sound like sqrt(2)?  And the price proportions if one assumed a final 1922 SPX high (to pull a number out of a rigged hat); (846 / 704)^3 = 1.7354.  Sound like the sqrt(3)?  Not a lot of reason to be much more accurate than the above because E&M’s implications are not much more specific than….. “If volume ends, prices decline to the wedge origin in a fraction of the time.”  [While in quotes, this is from memory.]

The longer volume history was notable (to me at least).  See the bold red lines.

Rise of the day trader to his hay day in 2000.  But we hear the day trader volume since 2000 is way down and somewhat replaced by high frequency trading.  Hard to factor this in, but despite a large portion of volume being HFT, volume continues lower in the last 14 years?  If we had a decline and the day trader were still prevalent, perhaps his/her slow to catch on reaction might mitigate any fall?  Well, what would the now prevalent nanosecond HFT programs do?  Perhaps Flash Crash?

One last thought and this is a stretch (errr, an even bigger one).  What if since the March 2009 bottom two wedges formed a greater wedge?  The first of the smaller wedges (the one that ended on May 2, 2011) did not return to its origin as E&M predicted.  Maybe the real wedge was yet to be fully formed and the decline that marked the end of the first wedge only defined the lower boundary of the larger wedge, now in red.  [Lower boundary from the zero line and upper boundary from the high on that date.]  And the volume over the 5 years?

And maybe pigs will learn to fly.

Jim

Celebrating the 4th anniversay of the Flash Crash; Consolidating some research

The Flash Crash top was exactly 4 years ago as of Saturday.  The actual crash occurred on May 6. What did Gann say about annual anniversaries?

The 15th Spiral Calendar interval originates with, of course, the 15th Fibonacci number 610.  The interval is 729.34 days or rather close to 2 years.  If you take April 26, 2010 plus 729.34 days you get 4/24/2012.  April 23, 2012 was a notable spike bottom prior to the final top preceding the 2012 panic.  Now take 729.34 days and you get....today.  [Large Spiral Calendar intervals are often off by several days.]  See the essay:

http://markettimeandpricetownhall.blogspot.com/2014/04/remember-flash-crash-perhaps-spiral.html

Something spooky.  February 5, 2010 was a prominent low preceding the final 80 day runup to the April 26, 2010 top.  And what does February 5, 2014 look like?

Each of the major contemporary tops - 1987, 2000 and 2007 - were preceded by a notable rally in the last 3-4 days before the top.  2000 was a blowoff rally to the top which was followed, immediately, by the greatest of the first wave declines.  See the essay:

http://markettimeandpricetownhall.blogspot.com/2014/04/this-time-its-different-part-2.html

Tech did not top first in any of the contemporary tops.  Yet, as it stands, NDX topped March 7, 2014 while DJIA (intraday) and SPX achieved their current tops on April 4, 2014.  Can it be different this time?  See the essay:

http://markettimeandpricetownhall.blogspot.com/2014/04/its-different-this-time.html

You might consider a crude and probably incorrect Elliott Wave rational (rationalization) that might enable a top at near this time in each of the indices; the ending diagonal triangle.  The DJIA EDT indicates a very slightly higher high.  The SPX EDT indicates a significantly higher high (about 1918) and the QQQs EDT indicates a very significantly higher high (since it is the only expanding EDT of the three).  Don't forget, the market likes to truncate fifth waves just to screw up Steven Hochberg's fine work (I have no idea what EWI is considering).  See the essays:

http://markettimeandpricetownhall.blogspot.com/2014/04/busted-dates-unbusted-edts-updating.html

http://markettimeandpricetownhall.blogspot.com/2014/04/what-if-indices-are-tracing-out-ending.html

Add April 26, 2010 to the mix of notable contemporary panics.  One thing that is notable about 2010 is that ALL three indices (DJIA, SPX, NDX) topped on THAT same day.  Its also notable that the Flash Crash occurred only 12 calendar days later.  Again, NDX didn't top first, but it really was different.  Perhaps if this possible rally materializes it builds a top a lot of people have been expecting (what did Gann say about 5 year bull markets).  Microsoft and other notables report after the bell; gas on the fire or water to truncate the rally?

And what would the metrics of the aftermath of a notable top look like?  See essays:

http://markettimeandpricetownhall.blogspot.com/2014/04/understanding-geometric-measurements-of.html

http://markettimeandpricetownhall.blogspot.com/2014/03/time-symmetry-further-study-in-2000-qqqs.html

So, perhaps "If xxxxx happens, then I'll xxxxxx." should be considered?

I feel an essay coming on.

Jim

Busted dates, unbusted EDTs; Updating the throwaway essay

Dates come and go but some things forge on.  I liked March 30 and April 18 weekends for a notable top; 'bugger' as the British say.  But the partial inspiration for those dates, Ending Diagonal Triangles (EDT) in the indices, seem to have endured.  The primary threat to those EDTs is the Grand Cross due tomorrow.  I’ve read newsletters that claim the Grand Cross and soon attendant other maturing astro events will ‘cause’ earthquakes, war in the Ukraine or Middle East, and even…. a truncated fifth wave!!!  Having read up on some Grand Crosses (particularly 1934), I have no doubt consequences of the Grand Cross will occur.  But my experience with large planets is that their time windows for effects are large and, most often, hard to associate with events.  As Bradley Cowan points out in Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory, when you associate the smaller planets and cycles with those of the large planets you greatly shrink the window for projections.  So, I’ve got these EDTs (maybe I should call them just triangles since I’m no longer ‘certified’ in Elliott Wave) and they don’t look busted at all.... as yet.  And I’m thinking maybe they aren’t going to bust despite the Grand Cross.  I’m also noting some new thoughts about them.

Some new developments in the SPX EDT on the larger scale:

You’ll note the ascending Gann zero line 1X1 drawn from the 3/6/2009 bottom.  It perfectly bisects the EDT at the top right of the screen.  The EDT is vibrating around Gann’s 1X1.  At least for now.  In the next chart below I’ve penciled in yet another date but for the above chart note that there is a time period at the bottom of the chart of 1888 calendar days.  Also note just below that time period there is a time period of 944 days which begins at March 6 to the date of the spike low in the middle of the chart.  A time “center of gravity” (COE) of which Gann would consider noteworthy?  Now a drill down on the SPX EDT:

From the point 2 low an ascending 2X1 Gann angle will intersect the similar 4X1 angle drawn from point 4 at point 5 on May 7, 2014 at about 1918.  And it makes that intersection on exactly the upper boundary.  So, that’s where I put point 5.  It creates the 1888 calendar day period noted above which is, in turn, subdivided with a notable spike at the COE.

Now the big picture on QQQs (I’ve done this with NDX but QQQs has more insights):

Three items to note from the QQQs big picture.  First, there’s a grey Gann 1X2 (one cent per 2 days) drawn from the all time high (ATH) on the left of the chart that transits just above the black expanding EDT at the right of the chart.  I consider this a very important angle.  Second, there’s a bolded dark blue 5X1 zero line drawn from the March 6, 2009 secondary low that so happens to perfectly coincide with the black upper boundary of the expanding EDT.  A 5X1 is not a primary Gann angle but it's simply 5 squares of time to 1 square of price.  That it coincides with the upper boundary of the EDT seems meaningful, at least to me.  Finally, I have again, and with great trepidation, picked out a date that I’ll explain later.  That date creates a period of 1892 calendar days for the period at the bottom of the page.  And subdividing that date gives a COE of 896 calendar days that is the low of the 2011 mini panic.  Now drill down again:

Do the pick a date first.  The 1X2 from the ATH meets the 5X1 from the March 6, 2009 zero line at exactly May 11, 2014 and a price of 94.76.  Again, that date creates the 1892 period above that is so notably subdivided and described in the preceding paragraph.  It also sets up some time relationships between the sub-waves of the EDT.  The EDT would span 144 calendar days from the beginning of the first sub-wave.  The time period from point 1 to point 3 equals the time period from point 3 to point 5; 66 CDs.  And 66 CDs is the 5^th Carolan interval based on the Fibonacci number 5.  And then you can look at each wave length of the 144 day span of the EDT.  You’ll find some very very interesting Fibonacci and harmonic relations between those waves.

So, there, yet another set of dates and price levels;  QQQs 94.79 on May 17 and SPX 1918 on May 7.  Many essays earlier I came up with those price levels and then wandered into higher levels of 97 and 2000, respectively, based on historic price intervals.  [Those may still occur but are based on price only but overshooting the upper boundary of an EDT by that much seems a little rich.]  I prefer the above rationale based on both time and price geometry and an Elliott Wave fit.  I wonder what astro things occur near those dates and what the sq of 9 might say.  That should take up the rest of the day.

There's a still intact contracting EDT in DJIA with a very flat top but there's little more to be said than might be said about SPX and QQQs.  So I won't.

Then again, the Grand Cross might truncate it all.  Bugger.

Jim     

Cheating, NDX and the sqrt(2); perfect order in the world

You may have read the previous essay regarding DJIA where each extreme high and low from 2000 to 2009 is related to the February 5, 1934 Grand Cross by Gann zero lines drawn from it using Sacred or geometric  numbers as the slope.  It was pretty easy to do the same thing in SPX using the earliest quoted date for SPX (in 1950) and similar sacred and geometric numbers:

SPX showed the same sacred and geometric numbers early in my investigation so I didn't belabor the point by finding more than the first 3 points above.  I'd expect the 2002 low is supported as well.

But NDX was problematic.  So what does an enterprising investigator do when he can't find the answer he wants?  He cheats.

I took a simple 1X1 zero line and fitted the line to exactly touch the top of the 2000 top and looked back to fit the origin to the nearest high or low.  Cheating.  The date of that low was December 31, 1986.  Nothing of distinction came to mind about that date.  Maybe you have a thought?

After painfully looking at dozens of sacred and geometric numbers I finally found that all of the 2000 to 2009 extreme highs and lows were 'explained' by an obscure function of the 4th root of 2 or 1.189 (of course the 4th root is 2X2 as well).  And, as we know, the 2nd root of 2 is the hypotenuse of the 1X1 square.  For the geometrically disinclined, the square root of 2 is 1.414....a number that Bradley Cowan says is more prominent in freely traded markets than Phi.  So, from the top in 2000 the Gann angles are 1X1, .5946 X1 (the 1X2 line with a step of 1.189), etc.  The fit is too good to be coincidence in my opinion.  The geometric root of 2 must be at the bottom of this.

But cheating is just so very unsatisfying.....until I noticed the close on the origin date of December 31, 1986.  I'll let you savor the 'coincidence.'

Happy ending.  Perhaps the Lord teases us in giving us glimpses of His perfect order.  Time for church this beautiful Easter day.

Jim







Grand Cross, DJIA and Gann angles

My ignorance of the Grand Cross neigh upon us had me scrambling today to find its correlation with markets.  And find I did.  It took me minutes to find an article that  pointed out the following:

In January 1934, we experienced a grand square between Uranus, Pluto and Jupiter in Aries, Cancer and Aries at 23 degrees of these cardinal signs.

http://www.examiner.com/article/rock-our-world-the-grand-cross-of-2014-and-its-effects-part-1

It wasn’t a mainstream site but that didn’t matter….I didn’t get past the 1934.  It caught my imagination.  [I didn't replicate the astro chart but took the 1934 as given.]  Since I was also working on some Gann angles I thought I’d apply simple zero angles on the DJIA chart with an origin in 1934; 1X1, 1X2…   The specific date I picked out was February 5, 1934, the high for the year.

As I recall (the lines are long since erased) the 1X2, 1X3 and 1X4 intersected price in recent times, that is, 2000 to 2014.  But nothing to brag about; after all they had to end up somewhere.  

I’d done this several years ago with the August 1932 bottom and the 2000 top (I think those were the dates).  I inserted Phi somehow and the 1932 origin ended up intersecting the 2000 top.  I was also able to get to the 1987 top.  I’ve seen this done by others as well.

This time I decided to put a .618 step in a Gann 1X1 angle with origin of February 5, 1934.  Goodness, it’s a little more than 100 points above the current high in DJIA (see the blue arrow on the below chart).  I was a little “wow’d”, but not that much.  

But I kept pursuing it beyond this first kinda success.  I pulled out Bryce Gilmore’s handy appendix on key Sacred and geometric numbers and started popping some into 1X1 Gann angles.  The black arrows indicate where they end up and the Sacred or geometric number that was used.  Now that’s a big “wow” IMO:

Every high and low since September 1998.  Is 1998 significant?  I don't know but I am familiar with it.  Bradley Cowan marks that low as the beginning of the Pentagonal 17-year cycle that is in the process of resolving in the 2016-17 time frame.  About 3 years left in that cycle.  Hmmm, I seem to recall that 1929 was near the end of that particular 17-year cycle.  Perhaps 1934 was the mirror reverse of where the markets find themselves at this juncture?  Working backwards towards 1929?  Too much time on my hands.

Looking at the blue arrow….perhaps a higher high in DJIA forthcoming?  You weigh it.  They didn’t teach this stuff in CPA school.

Not much to report other than the 1934 and 2014 grand cross events are apparently connected by more than just the planets.  Both vibrate with the underlying geometry that rules them both.  Perhaps “as above, so below” is only half the story?  Maybe 'as below, so above?'  Is the independent variable the perfect geometry and the ‘above’ and the ‘below’ are dependent co variants?  

Have a blessed Easter.

Jim

What if the indices are tracing out ‘ending diagonal triangles’?

[This is a throwaway essay.  Too much time on my hands.]

So how’d my re reading Gann’s ‘Stock Market Course’ dredge up Elliott Wave ending diagonal triangles?  Gann suggests that the intersections of angles from consecutive highs or lows suggest a change in trend might occur near the date of that intersection (not near the price).  So I pulled a couple charts from a couple weeks ago where I’d suggested the indices might be forming ending diagonal triangles (EDT, not the Lipitor type ED).  All the newsletters I read say the top is in and the Grand Crossing (see “Looking back 100 years regarding the Grand Cross) of next week will turn the markets down severely.  I read or heard two commentaries today alone that speculated the astro clusters will be so bad next week that they’d suspect middle east war or yet bigger problems in the Ukraine.  I’m not an astro guy so I’ll defer to their better opinion (not being facetious BTW).  Nevertheless, they really look like EDTs to me.  Hmmm, my Elliott Wave credentials are suspect as well and I don’t long term count or mind proper numbering anymore.  Anyway, my interest is examining whether the angle crossings might provide some notable dates.

Here’s the first chart of SPX where the green vectors are the 1X1 down from point 1 and 2X1 down from point 2. 

Gann says the tops should be approximately the same price level and they aren’t on the above chart.  So I took the liberty of beginning both at the price level of point 1.  They intersect at Sunday May 11, 2011.

Here’s the second chart of QQQs which would be sporting an expanding EDT.

The two price points are at radically different prices so it clearly does not comply with Gann’s instructions.  Still, I applied the two angles beginning at the same price but the differing dates of point 1 and point 2 and came up with an intersection at Friday May 16.  That makes sense as NDX, Nasdaq and QQQs have never topped last (see previous essay)….at least until this time?

Here’s the final chart of DJIA and it’s the only one of the 3 that has point 1 and 2 at about the same price level.  I drew 3 angles instead of just the 2X1 this time.  The 3 intersections were May 5 (4X1), May 21 (3X1) and July 6 (2X1).  At the 2X1, Gann’s preferred angle in this method, the two tops infer a future pivot all the way out in July?  No happy ending.  But I did spy the blue 1X1 up from the 3/6/2009 bottom intersected the top EDT boundary on Saturday May 10.  Comports with the SPX date of May 11 and both precede the QQQs’ projected topping date of May 16.  All is good. 

May 10/11 (Saturday and Sunday) for point 5 high in SPX and DJIA and May 16 for QQQs. 

Of course, if they aren’t EDTs I can claim they were but “truncated” (Hochberg taught me that).  Or if they are EDTs and resolve as EDTs with higher highs, the legions of analysts can claim “inversion.” 

In either case, when the February low falls, its "game on."

Jim

Remember the Flash Crash? Perhaps the Spiral Calendar has it bookmarked

Pre Flash Crash 4/26/2010 top with the one-day wonder occurring 5/6/2010.  Here's a possible Spiral Calendar connection to 2014.

The direct application of Spiral Calendar intervals (an interval is the square root of each Fibonacci number multiplied by the synodic lunar month) is pretty much what the herd does.  Take a great pivot date, say March 24, 2000 and add several of the intervals to guess at a future pivot you "like."  If you triangulate two or more historic pivot dates to one future date you have an enhanced likelihood of success.

But if you read carefully in one of Carolan's itemized lists that I've footnoted on this blog before, you will find that a spiral can be anchored to any Golden Section between two pivot dates.  Of course, a Golden Section is most often thought of as .618 and .382.  But what about .5 and .5?  Yup, IMO.  I believe Carolan shows an example of the .5 and .5 section as an anchor.

To get to the point, take the 15th SC interval which is 729.34 days (the square root of the 15th Fib number of 610 X 29.53) and add it to the final highest high before the Flash Crash which was 4/26/2010 and you get 4/24/2012.  That date was the first wave bottom of the 2012 panic….exactly.  Coincidence?  Not for a Carolanophile.

Now add another 729 calendar days and you arrive at 4/23/2014.  I'm sure it doesn't escape anyone that we're dealing in nearly exactly equal bi annual increments?  And is the Sun cycle an important cycle?

Simply a date of interest connecting two important pivots to 2014.  If I had the time I might try to "triangulate" it with other important dates.  But combined with the astro configuration described in the essay "Looking back 100 years", the Gann eclipse method Sun longitude crossing on 4/23/2014 and the forthcoming 2nd eclipse on 4/29/2014 perhaps its all the more interesting?

What was it Gann said about halfway points?  Now strengthen those halfway points by correlating them with the annual solar cycle, the synodic lunar cycle and the Fibonacci series.  Again, April 23 is not "triangulated" with another confirming SC interval application, but it sure looks interesting for something.

Jim

This time its different? part 2

3% in the last 4 trading days to the 2007 top:

http://screencast.com/t/JDaCn8y2

15.8% in the last 3 trading days prior to the 2000 top:

http://screencast.com/t/SVcJuqdPO

5% in the last 3 trading days prior to the 1987 top:

http://screencast.com/t/JqmijNhODx9

3 consecutive significantly positive trading days in a topping area and you might think about it...but maybe not too hard, I mean, rallies do occur.  But if you're otherwise in the area of a major top and get 15% in 3 consecutive positive days, you might think about the year 2000.  And what happened pretty much immediately after the 2000 and the 1987 tops?  In 2000 there was a 33% decline in 14 calendar days.  No dinner and dancing….  In 1987, because NDX topped late on 10/6/1987, you had the crash just 16 calendar days later.  2007 took a while to get its mojo ramped.

More interesting, if "all the tops" are behind us as the bandwagon of analysts had loaded up last month, its really taking a long time to get started to the downside in earnest.  Heck, NDX only today took out the 2/5/2014 low today (4/15/2014) and this is more than a month after the 3/7/2014 NDX top.  And when it printed today, the lower low today, it immediately bounced 70 points.   Megaphone/expanding ending diagonal triangle in NDX?

Things are really seeming different this time?

You might want to file this in the "If…., then I do this" file pending circumstances that might or might not manifest.

Jim

Looking back 100 years

From WD Gann we have:

The major cycles run in 100 and 5000 years with variations based on minor cycles. In order to be sure of world events and important changes, it is necessary to go back at least 1000 years and prove up the cycles. (TTTA pg 79).

Let’s look back 100 years to 1914 (not 1000 or 5000) at DJIA (forgive the sad state of my data):

The market topped on March 19, 1914, one day after the quarter moon and two days before the Spring Equinox.  And the flat line that began July 31, 1914 was the four and one half closure of the NYSE.  

I have a couple planets in mind that will have relevance when we fast forward to today.  So here are the locations of five important planets on the March 19, 1914 top date:

Three of them are sesquisquare (135* or 3 X 45*) with Pluto on the cardinal cross and Jupiter and Uranus on the diagonal cross.  Pluto's’s longitude line bisects cell 61 on the day that DJIA topped at 60.47.  It’s not a very sharply angled chart with the 135* not being exact or with Pluto dead on price, but it has some reflection in a much sharper chart 100 years later.

Flip forward to 2014.  The market is now approximately 1 lunar month after the Spring Equinox.  The Equinox occurred this year two days before the last phase of the moon on March 23 and the last phase occurs on April 23, 2014 this month.  So we’re roughly 2 days short of one lunar month past where we were in 1914…as of Monday/Tuesday of next week.  Roughly 100 years and one month from the 1914 top.  So where do the five planets noted in 1914 stand as of about now (let’s pick out April 18, 2014 because I already have them screen shot from a post on a blog yesterday):

Well, 4 of the five planets from 1914 are forming an interesting square.  And that fifth planet Venus….it’s forming aspects as well:

What angle would the above planetary square and Venus wish to place a price?

If this interests you, you might want to read up on the history of 1914.  That's the 'proof' of cyclic repetition Gann was encouraging.  What struck me was not so much the similarity of the markets thus far but the geopolitical realignments of alliances.  Then there was 'the war to end all wars.'

Jim

March 7, 2014 and April 18, 2014, pick a Tech top, and Bradley Cowan’s PTV

The current high in NDX/QQQ is March 7, 2014 and, as I demonstrate in yesterday’s post, NDX has never followed either DJIA or SPX in topping at extreme prices (all 3 times).  This time might be different?  So how good is the March 7, 2014?  And, if it’s good, how good is my pick de jour of the April 18, 2014 weekend and QQQ at 97.05?

Bradley Cowan developed the Price Time Vector (PTV) to simultaneously measure price and time.  It Pythagoras’ measurement of the hypotenuse of the right triangle.  Once the sides of triangles identified in a chart are measured with the PTV, their relationships should demonstrate recognizable geometric figures such as sqrt(2), sqrt(3), Phi….

So what do you measure and compare since we have this move up from 11/21/2008 (NDX and QQQ bottomed earlier than SPX and DJIA that followed 3 months later)?  How about a really grand triangle with the dramatic 3/24/2000 top, equally dramatic 10/8/2002 bottom and the date of interest, 3/7/2014.  Here’s what it looks like on software that measures PTVs:

Pretty slick chart eh?  I did not use the software to compute the values on that chart because it uses calendar months and I wanted to use the synodic lunar month (not much difference-err, I think).  And I wanted to use a month calculation with days preserved in decimals (the squaring formula is reputed as working best with 3 digit values).  Here are the calcs:

I’ve strung it out so the exact steps in calc’ing the PTV can be seen.  Of the 3 PTVs that are calculated, two have values I recognize.  Most will easily recognize AB/BC = 1.5 which is the 4^th Fibonacci number divided by the 3rd and a key number in planar geometry, proportions, Diatonic scale, etc. otherwise.  AC/BC=1.106 doesn’t seem to ring a bell, but to the 7^th power it becomes 2.02.  Of course, 2 is the square of the diagonal of a 1X1 square and touted by Cowan as the most important number in the market (including Phi).

I’d say March 7, 2014, on a very grand scale spanning from the 2000 top, qualifies for a good place for the final top.  But I’d expect prominent tops to have good geometry even if they weren't the final top.  I bet I could find some good geometry with the interim April 26, 2010 Flash Crash top.

So how about my favorite date and price.  I have written about numerous items that led me to that date and time ranging from Spiral Calendar indications and price intervals as explained in various foregoing essays.  Most dramatic of the "circumstances" I’ve identified is the 72 price interval and time associated with QQQs.  QQQs first trade was March 10, 1999 and it declined immediately to a low of 48.50 on March 24, 1999.  Then it moved 72 points (as in "Pentagonal") higher in one year -to the penny and to the day - topping at 120.50 on March 24, 2000.  If that doesn’t make one a believer in geometry and vibration, read no further.  My infatuation with 97.05 then comes from the most recent extreme low at 25.05 on 11/21/2008 plus the price interval of 72.

All circumstance if PTV squaring does not work in my opinion.  So here we go:

AB/AC=1.664 or the fifth Fibonacci number divided by the fourth.  Plenty of uses of that number; diatonic scale, planetary cycles….  And AC/BC=1.084.  I’m sure that really sprang out at you.  Well, it would’ve if you took it to the sixth power….it is 1.618.

I had to trick you a bit to get that exact number.  As I explained, I really like 97.05 for a top because of the price interval.  But it only got me to 1.610.  Hey, 1.61 is not too shabby but 1.618 has that special flair.  So I feathered price down to 96.82 on April 18, 2014 under the rationalization of Gann’s ‘lost motion.’ 

So which one is better?  March 7, 2014 or a yet to materialize 97.05 on April 18, 2014 (Monday April 21, 2014 would be permissible)?  I like the latter even though only 2 days ago QQQs needed 14% in 2 weeks.  As of today’s close it only needs 11% in 7 trading days.  No sweat.  Trifecta odds.

By the way.  I just went back and recalc’d the PTVs for both days using a 30-day month instead of a synodic lunar month.  Nothing but garbage PTV ratios.  Not a one of them was a recognizable geometric proportion.  What’s the golfer’s maxim “I’d rather be lucky than good.”

Jim

It’s different this time?

I’ve had the impression NDX was always the last to top; rightly or wrongly.  And first to bottom.  It’s easy enough to establish.

 

Until now, on both a highest high and closing basis, NDX always topped last.  In terms of bottoms, NDX bottomed last at the end of the dot.com bust.  At the other 2 bottoms, NDX bottomed first.

So, how does the current topping process look?  On neither a highest high or closing basis is NDX the last to top-currently.

DJIA is very atypical.  It is first to top on a closing basis but is co host of the 1/2 spot with SPX, three months later.

Can it be different this time?

Jim

Understanding geometric measurements of the 2000 top - Price Time Vectors

This is long hair stuff (I'm bald).  No predictions, pure study so if you want to see a math wannabe hang himself, I've provided plenty of other grist ready for the grind in other posts.

If a top were to be reached and some form of wave symmetry were to be expected at that top, how would one measure the emerging waves down?  I’ve previously noted time symmetry in various essays but time symmetry is not special (time and price) symmetry.  Bradley Cowan adopted the Pythagorean measurement of the hypotenuse of the right triangle to simultaneously measure price and time in freely traded markets and called it Price Time Vector values or “PTV.” 

QQQs are selected to examine the 2000 top for a starter.  QQQs represent the speculative markets and form vivid pivots that are easy to ‘see’.  And QQQs started recently; if there’s an “initial vibration” as described by Gann, perhaps we will see it.

The first step is to calibrate the measurement tool, the PTV.  It’s a lot like “squaring the chart” (which Gann never really really defined, at least for the drooling crowd, me) or finding the unit of price to time or finding the step value that defines the 1X1.  It’s very very easy for QQQs.

QQQs first traded on 3/10/99 and price promptly bottomed on 3/24/99 at 48.50.  To the day and to the penny, QQQs topped on 3/24/2000 at 120.50.  Spooky.  That’s one year and 72.00 points.  72 points or 1/5^th the circle or one of 5 of Cowan’s Pentagonal cycle.  And one year.  [Goodness, is this an "initial vibration?"  Can it be so large a vibration with subsequent vibrations divisions of it rather than multiples?] Obviously in days, you have 365 / 72 or just over 5.  5, that's a neat number.  But in Sun degrees its exactly 5.0000 because its exactly one year and the Sun travels 360 degrees in one year, not 365 (errr Gann said the Sun travels 361 degrees but that's another digression).  So, if you have Cycletimer or if you’re working the Pythagorean formula you want to use a multiple of 5.  Here’s the triangle dimensions before the price multiplier is changed:

Now, lets look at the symmetry on either side of the 3/24/2000 top in terms of PTVs (and visually).  Look at the last move up and the first move down:

You have a near perfect isosceles triangle with sides of 85, 85 and 9.  Hmmm, 9 divides 72 in whole numbers.  Cowan said you'll find this kind of triangles in markets.  It appears there’s a perfect equilibrium of force on either side of the top. 

Now look at the next to the last move up and the second move down from the top:

Still close to an isosceles, but a little less perfect.  Sides of 99, 98 and 18.  Hmmm, a base of 18 divides 72 by exactly 4.

Now, look at a much larger triangle (which probably was the last of the first Elliot Wave one down but I haven’t checked):

Incredible geometry.  And the base is now exactly twice the 72 points between the 3/24/99 bottom and 3/24/00 top.  The move down from the top (right side) is now more forceful than the left with a PTV value of 249 versus 204.  The downside is gaining momentum.   Although I won’t be getting into Elliott Wave 3, the momentum, I expect, will become a landslide, errrr waterfall.

And one last triangle, larger than the first two and smaller than the last one:

The right side is decidedly more forceful at 161 (similar to Phi) versus 123.  Funny though, the base isn’t a division of 72.  It’s 61.9…..errr, Phi X 10?

My conclusion based on this one top, a very important top, is that the decline on the right side shows rational geometric proportion to the buildup going into the top.  If we can apply a stable set of metrics to the right side based on the left side…or at least smell out the emerging proportions that might occur, then the decline should be predictable.....less unpredictable?

As Drudge would say “Developing.”

Jim

April Spiral Calendar worksheet dates

Chapter 5 of Chris Carolan’s ‘The Spiral Calendar’ provides a worksheet methodology that uses historic pivots and adds Spiral Calendar (SC) intervals to project future pivots.  SC intervals are simply the square root of each Fibonacci series number divided by the synodic lunar month.  When two projections, derived from previous proven pivots (of some noticeable magnitude), fall on the same future date, you have a raised likelihood of a pivot on that date.  There are subjective factors to further qualify potential future dates.  Often, many previous pivots will project to the same (over very close) future date (I call them “hits”) suggesting either the strength of that date or a whipsaw.  Again, some subjectivity in how you interpret that data.

In April I derived 4 projected pivot dates in QQQs and DJIA of interest:

The one colored date, 4/16/2014, is highlighted in my work because it derives from a pivot that was, itself, a highly volatile day.  It is noteworthy that the person who creates the database (and highlights the supposedly more volatile date) may infuse bias and variability just in picking out what qualifies as an historic pivot.

At the end of March I was left with March 30 as a very significant pivot (due to a large number of “hits”).  It did not turn out that way.  It was a bottom and a temporary one, more like a whiplash as after two days on the upside it reversed down.   As it turned out, I colored March 30 as a top of great significance based on other information (and my bear bias) when, in fact, it was a very insignificant bottom.

This time, I’ll let the dates be what they are; simply projected pivots.  They are generally accurate to one day on either side if the underlying historic pivots gave a single projected date or, if the historic pivots gave two contiguous dates that you assumed would produce a pivot, then two days on either side.  Very often (I dare to say most often) they are spot on.

Note that April 7 (yesterday) was identified as a pivot and, if anything, it must be a bottom.  April 13 in QQQs and 11 in DJIA are, effectively, the same day since they span a weekend.  Same with April 5 and April 7, effectively the same date.  But the primary date I am watching, based on other work, is April 18, 2014.  There are numerous posts on this blog addressing time and price on that day.

Supplementing SC dates, it’s wise to at least consider some, in your face, astro events soon to occur: a total lunar eclipse in the morning hours of April 15 (pre trading) and an annular solar eclipse on April 29.  Each are close to the above pivots.  These eclipses define the “Puetz Crash Window” which is always something to keep in one's peripheral field of vision.

Jim

QQQs – Far too elegant to occur

This little note follows on essays regarding price intervals (vibrations) in markets.  In SPX multiples of the difference (interval) between the 1987 top and 1987 crash bottom of 121.43 explain the major price extremes in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2007 and 2009.  As identified by Bradley Cowan, a vibration of 395 routinely recurs at major market tops and bottoms in DJIA.  QQQs is an interesting possibility to repeat a vibration because it was very recently (1999) first traded.

QQQs was first traded on 3/10/1999 and very promptly made a bottom on 3/24/1999 at 48.50.  One year later, QQQs topped at 120.50, an increase of exactly 72 points to the penny and to the day.  Half of the square of 12 and one fifth the degrees in the circle.  The subject of a book on market geometry, Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory.  72 points and 365 calendar days.

I saw the possible tie in to QQQs several weeks ago but that’s a pretty large percentage “price interval” to be replicated as had occurred in SPX and DJIA.  Some of the price extremes in 2000-2009 can be tied to divisions of 72 points but the ‘full Monty?’  Try this:

 

I backed into a date of April 18, 2014 for other reasons.  Ignoring that, when you fit  38.2%, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci price AND time levels to QQQs with a target of 97.05 on April 18, 2014, this is what you get:

The 38.2% and 61.8% are within $2 of a perfect price fit and a matter of just a couple days of a perfect time fit (38.2% misses by 2 days and 61.8% misses by a day).  The 50% time level perfectly intersects the day of the 2011 panic bottom.  [To me, the 50% to the day is the 'tell' if there is one.  It doesn’t all hang together though.  Delta price  / delta time = 7200 / 1974 = 3.647 which exceeds the Phi ^2 +1. 

I read analysts touting time or price but not both...or at least, infrequently.  I wonder if this is the stronger argument?  Hmmm. 

It certainly doesn’t look much better than the odds of the trifecta.  Not after the indices did the outside down day thing yesterday and continued down today.  From the bottom 84.95, today, QQQs would need 14.2% in two weeks.  It’s been done before (QQQs put on 19 points in the 8 calendar days before the 2000 top) but it’s hardly a bookable trade.  More a conversation piece unless you want the 100 to 1 nag in the fifth to win by a length and going away.  How far out on the fat tail would that be Nassim? 

Alas.

Jim

SPX 2000, Easter 2014

Many months ago I first mused SPX 2000 without reference to a date based solely on the isolated thought that the 2009 low of 666.79 X 3 would be a wondrous 2000.  I’m sure I’m not alone in that daydream.  But it has only been a wistful thought until I discovered the supporting geometry and math.  Now Sunday, two weeks before Easter and I ‘see’ what, to me, is inescapable geometry and math that destines SPX 2000.  Two weeks requiring a gain of 7% in that period to reach that level.

I’m sure Friday’s disastrous decline and close at 1865 (down 1.25% on the day) has those same analysts that called the top for March 7 and March 21 calling for the sky to fall again.  Similarly and based on Chris Carolan’s Spiral Calendar, I had March 30 for a top.  But there wasn’t any geometry.  Just a projected pivot to which I added the flourish of the type of price level (top) and a price level.  It turned out a good pivot to the credit of SC but a bottom just to embarrass me (which I richly deserved).  The sky may fall, but from a point 7% higher than from where SPX closed Friday.  And this time I’m claiming that time AND price projection based geometry and math.

As an appetizer, please consider my essay on “Does the 1987 crash interval explain…..?”  The link is below.  The 1987 crash price interval of 121.43 (the 1987 top minus the crash bottom) explains every price extreme since 1998.  It explains the top and bottom of the 1998 panic, the 2000 top, 2002 bottom, 2007 top, and 2009 bottom.  The 2009 bottom plus 10 intervals of 121.43 gives you 1881, but 11 intervals gives you 2002.  I stopped short of having the audacity of proposing 2000.  And, really, it was an enticing but not convincing argument.  The link is here:

http://markettimeandpricetownhall.blogspot.com/2014/04/does-1987-crash-interval-explain-1998.html

How I arrived at the Easter weekend is unimportant.  Use it as a premise to be interrogated.  Here is a chart which displays only the first layer of geometry projecting Easter weekend and SPX 2000:

1,869 calendar days from the March 6, 2009 low of 666.79 arrives at Friday, April 18, 2014.  Suspiciously close to the 1,827 calendar days from the 2002 low to the 2007 high but set that aside.  Subdivide 1869 days based on extreme highs and lows into 4 intervals of 416, 526, 409 and 518.  The “mated” intervals of 526 and 416 produce a quotient of 1.2644 or the 3^rd root of 2.  Ditto that for 518 divided by 409.  Can that be a coincidence?

Ponder, for a moment, the 1869 calendar day interval.  What if the high printed on Monday, April 21, 2014….substantially the “Easter weekend.”  The interval would be 1872 or EXACTLY 13 squares of 12 (13 X 12^2). 

Let’s examine the simultaneous geometry of price and time.  Each of the dates of extreme highs and lows used to define the 4 intervals above have an extreme price.  Those prices, in turn, define price intervals that have geometric proportions as did the time intervals:

Those price intervals, as a proportion of the total interval of 1869, can be reassembled to exhibit Phi proportions of .6 and.4 as shown above.  The 1^st and 3^rd price interval combined are 40.56% of the total price interval, and the 2^nd and 4^th price intervals combined are 59.44% of the total price interval.

Now let's really seal the deal.  What is delta time of 1,869 divided by delta price of 1,322?  You do the math.  Can't make that up.  To a lesser state of wonderment, divide the projected ending price of 1989 by the delta price of 1322.....it's 1.5, the 4th Fibonacci number divided by the 3rd and a key player in planar geometry.

There’s so much more but adding layers of geometry in SPX will only add color to the structure exhibited above.  More significantly, however, NDX exhibits similar geometric time and price proportions that support Easter weekend.  This is very significant because NDX bottomed November 21, 2008, more than 3 months before SPX.  Here’s a chart with interval subdivisions, again, based on extreme price levels:

As with SPX, those 4 time intervals in NDX define related price intervals.  And those price intervals can be recombined to perfectly subdivide the 2,904 point increase from 2008 to 2014 into two sections of 50% (reciprocal of the 3rd Fibonacci number):

Here’s one for further reflection.  Take the 1,974 calendar day interval in NDX and section it by the inverse of Phi (1,974 X .618 = 1,219 days) and you get 1,219 days.  Measure 1,219 days from the November 21, 2008 low and you are very close to the April 3, 2012 high at 2795.  [It’s actually 1,229 calendar days.]  That price is 61.8% of the total price interval from the 2008 low of 1019 and the projected Easter high of 3,923:

Summing it up and adding some poetry, SPX 2000 on Easter weekend.  A two-week 7% bull exhaustion rally.  NDX 3,923 or almost 11% from the current 3,539 close on Friday.  It could be SPX 1,989 and NDX 3,986….Gann’s concept of “lost motion.”  But boil it down to the title of this essay….in substance, SPX 2000.

After that, well, see my essays that studied the early days after the 2000 and 2007 tops (the ‘first wave’ down).  I’m tempted to say the sky will fall but I do not have any geometry or math to guide me as yet.  So, for the moment, let’s leave it with Gann’s caution to look for a change in trend at holidays.

Jim Ross

Sunday, April 6, 2014