What is a miracle? Perhaps 365^2 X 2 or 2.51X10^778 ?

Now convinced WD Gann predicted several events in the World's immediate future, I feel a responsibility to explain this to my in-laws for their preparation.  Its going to be a tough sell given that the father is a minister and life long accomplished student of the Bible.  The contrast could not be greater; the completely literate being lectured by the entirely ignorant.  I feel the meaning of WD Gann's citation of Mathew 13:57 found on page 69 of "The Tunnel Thru the Air:"

I can't argue on his level of understanding.  I have only my testimony, the first part of which is this.  I've studied a man I believe understood the wisdom and knowledge of the Bible to the extent he made predictions not in the realm of conventional understanding.  That in 1909, without a computer or even a calculator and with an auditor following him around the NYSE floor listing every trade, he entered 288 trades in 25 days with only 22 loss trades; that's a documented statistical miracle.  Do the math; in a random market, this can't happen.  Moreover, I've discovered dozens of miracles of foresight which I have documented for persons also familiar with WD Gann and which may be backtested.  Some may be dismissed as coincidence or error on my part, many cannot.

This first level of testimony of miracles will not help me within my 'house.'  The statistics of trading securities will not be meaningful because I'm the only trader.  And the other miracles in TTTTA?  I'm the only one in my family who has read TTTTA.  My family knows my obsession with Mr. Gann's TTTTA and will only see the obsession turned to the "23 enigma;"  the truth studied so hard it becomes untruth as Emerson has said.  How do I present a miracle that my 'house' has experienced?

What is a miracle?  When you type the question into Google you get exactly this:

A highly improbable, surprising and welcome event not explicable by natural or scientific laws.

Our 'house' has such an event witnessed not just by me or people with the understanding and ability to research TTTTA; it is witnessed by my daughter and son-in-law.  It's documented HERE.

On Sunday November 15, 2015, in connection with our trip to see him graduate from Naval War College in Rhode Island, my son-in-law detoured and drove me to Green-Wood Cemetery in Brooklyn NY to, for my third visit Mr. Gann's grave.  I'd planned on making that trip for WDG research purposes alone and, I'm sure my family was worried for my safety (they won't tell me that), so they willingly contrived the trip and detour for my benefit.

When we arrived, I had given my daughter some instructions on documenting aspects of some stones and I began examining the stone I believed to be the 13th stone in a triangular configuration that is otherwise comprised of 12 stones.  My son-in-law, an avid fantasy football fan, was standing about 10 feet up the hill (east) from Mr. Gann's stone and was looking down at his cell phone, reading the latest on fantasy football players; planning his Sunday strategy.

As I studied the hypothetical 13th stone, he called me to come up to where he was standing; "You've got to see this" were his exact words.

So I trekked up the hill and we looked at the gravestone that is exactly the first up the hill from Mr. Gann's (perhaps 5 feet separate the stones).  It is the Nevins family stone.  Here is a picture I took to document this what we saw that day:

On that very first stone (the "Nevins," a near anagram of "seven") my son-in-law had seen in this cemetery of perhaps 400,000 gravestones (just a guess as there are nearly 600,000 persons interred at GWC) was inscribed his birth date and that of his wife's, my daughter.  The exact days.  What are the odds of this?  That's what I'd ask my brother-in-law, the minister.  That's the miracle.

Again, do the math.  Ed, if there were 365 stones in a graveyard, each with one day of the year on it, what is the probability you'd walk into their midst and place your gaze on the one that had your birth date on it?  Simple, it's 1 divided by 365.  Maybe you birth date is a popular date to die and there are 3 gravestones which you might select that will work.  Still, you're 1 in 120.  Keep it simple and assume a random distribution of death dates.  You toss a coin and there are only 2 outcomes so the probability is 1 divided by 2.  In this case, there are 365 outcomes so its 1 out of 365.

Its far more complicated.  Let's say there are 2 dates on every stone.  How many stones does the cemetery have to have in order to have every combination of two dates in the year?  Again assuming randomness of death dates, I believe the statistical answer is 365 factorial or 365 X 364 X 363 X 362 X ......3 X 2 X 1 = a very large number:

A number that is incomprehensibly large.  It's 2.51 X 10 to the 778th power.  2.51 with 778 zeros behind it.  Maybe I'm wrong about it being a factorial calculation...its still a big number.  Maybe its as small as 365 ^ 2.  365 X 2 would still be 133225 gravestones.  Let's go with that number just to keep this essay somewhat comprehensible (though I believe the factorial solution is the correct one).

Say we have a cemetery with 133225 stones in it and Ed and Linda are at the gate.  Their job is to walk anywhere in the graveyard and, when they feel comfortable, look down at the dates on one and only one gravestone.  What is the probability that they would see both of their dates of birth on that stone?  Not just one, but both.  How many stones would they have to look at to find the 1 out of 133225 that would have both of their birth dates on it?

I really don't care for the answer, whether it is as small as 1 in 266450 or as large as 1 in 2.51X10^778 X 2.51X10^778 (the latter is the joint probability of two events).  The improbability of my son-in-law having seen what he saw, on the first try, that day exceeds imagination.  

It gets more improbable.  Having seen those dates the question popped into my mind, what about the 13th stone.  Is my birth date on it?  What would be the probability of that having just seen the twin dates on the Nevins stone?  So I trekked back down the hill and looked at the hypothetical 13th stone for my birth date and this is what I saw:

I saw the date which every parent most fears; that of their child predeceasing them.  My son passed on that day; September 18, 2007.  And that one stone, out of all those which I'd seen, was sitting off centered from its base.  There wasn't a smudge or chip on it that I could see.  It wasn't tilted.  It was sitting sideways.  I asked my son-in-law, a bull of a man, could we have moved that great stone; no.  What is the probability of that occurrence heaped upon the already vastly improbable twin dates?  The answer is unimportant; I know it all to be vastly improbable.  Sir Arthur Eddington's "Army of Monkeys;" that given all of infinity could not type an exact replica of the Library of Congress.

I understand.  Given any grave stone with a date on it, there's likely a date on it that has some small personal meaning to it.  For example, on the stone above, maybe June 28 that is under Arthur Le Grand's name was the date I lost my first tooth?  I'll let you ponder whether that reaches the meaning of one's birth or the loss of a child in personal importance.  You be the arbiter.  Either you recognize it or you don't.

Among the 12 gravestones on which I've been concentrating, there are maybe 3 that have dates on them.  There are maybe 9 that have only the years, such as that of WD and Sadie Gann's:

*******

I take the above as a miracle that confirms to me the direction of my research into WD Gann's "The Tunnel Thru the Air."  I will simply ask my 'house' to believe this last miracle that confirms the many other miracles that I have derived from Mr. Gann's works.  I will ask my "house" to believe my interpretation of Mr. Gann's work.

For those few who read this essay, you haven't a reason to believe the story of the stones because you don't know me or whether I am truthful.  However, I have provided dozens of  vastly improbable events you can 'backtest' as documented in dozens of the most recent (last three months) essays on this blog.  Backtest Mr. Gann's 6th prophecy and 7th prophecy.  Backtest the name of the director of the 2009 movie "Knowing" being found in TTTTA, published in 1927.....  Backtest the proofs of Mr. Gann's knowledge and interpretation of the Bible, his foreknowledge, so that you can have confidence (or otherwise) that he knew.  Ask yourself if such events are, within our understanding, possible.

It shouldn't take a statistician to determine if these things of immense unlikelihood (in my naive finite mathematician's opinion) are possible.  Only you, in your character of intelligence, can discern what is true.

If you confirm then ask yourself, what is the purpose of this proof....these miracles?

Jim Ross

[Note 1/28/2016.  Still further unsettled about my formulation of probability above and in the note date 1/26/2016 I woke last night and found the answer.  First, finding a stone with two unique dates on it is not a joint probability sot the 1/26 note is correct in that.  Second, though, it is not 1 / 365 factorial.  It is correctly formulated as 1 divided by the number of stones it would take to fill a cemetery with each stone having unique dates on it.  Start with January 1 and January 1, then January 1 and January 2.....January 1 and December 31.  The iteration of January 1 has 365 stones. The second iteration would have 364 as the dates January 2 and January 1 was taken in the first iteration.  And the January 3 row would have 363 stones as two already occurred in the first two rows.  The number of stones would be 365+364+363+.....3+2+1 =  666795 and the probability of what we saw on the first stone containing the December 24 and December 30 dates would be 1 divided by 66795...a small number.  

What I cannot handicap would be the very next event.  I walked back to the hypothetical 13th stone and the two relevant dates in my life were my birth and the death of my son.  I near expected to see my birth date and saw the latter.  Out of 5 dates on that stone, one was that of my son's passing.  So, now we do have a joint improbability of 1 / 66795 X 5 / 365.  I'm sure this latter interpretation is wrong but will not lose more sleep over it.  I've corrected my errors in the first formulations of the improbability and the answer remains the same....these events are vastly improbable.  JR]

[Note 1/26/2016.  After long consideration, I believe the answer is 1 / 2.51X10^778.  The trial is not two independent draws against a population of 365 unique dates which is a joint probability that would be 1/365 X 1/365.  Rather, there is one draw against a population of stones that have on them two dates, one for each day of the year.  The question then is, 'how many unique combinations of two dates in the year are in the population.  I believe there are 365 factorial such unique combinations.  Take the first date, 1/1/2016 and 1/1/2016, then 1/1/2016 and 1/2/2016....., then 1/1/2016 and 12/31/2016.  That will be 365 combinations for the first date.  Then take 1/2/2016 and 1/1/2016, that is not a unique combination having already been identified.  But 1/2/2016 and 1/2/2016 is unique as are the next 363 iterations of 1/2/2016.  The second iteration, that being 1/2/2016 has 364 unique observations.  Likewise, 1/3/2016 would have 363....and so on.  On the last iteration there would be one observation of 12/31/2016 and 12/31/2016.  We have 365 factorial.  The answer is, the likelihood of seeing those two dates on a stone on the first "look," as did my son-in-law that day was 1 divided by 2.51 X 10^778.]